Sitemap - 2024 - The Boock Report
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Inflation, income, & spending/Hammack gives us her reasoning for dissent
Let's do this one more time this year
Q3 GDP revised up/Claims less than expected/Philly mfr'g weak
Powell's hall of mirrors and 'If you give a mouse a cookie'/Other notables
Fed cuts as they raise economic forecasts and also catches up to market pricing/Yields are jumping
Housing starts data, multi family 2nd lowest since 2013 ex Covid
Succinct Summation of the Rate Cut Debate
US IP soft/Builder sentiment mixed and lacking traffic
Retail sales in line, internals mixed
One more thing on S&P Global PMI service component
Services "booming," manufacturing still contracting
Manufacturing reality back in NY
Last week coffee prices, this week cattle and cocoa/Sentiment/PMI's and China
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
ECB cuts/PPI driven by higher chicken eggs/Claims jump
Some rate cuts and a big rate hike/Milei taking Argentina in the right direction/Other notable stuff
CPI rundown/Six month high in food prices in CRB index
Inflation is in the eye of the stat you use/Earnings comments/China teases weaker yuan
How can the Fed cut again in the face of this?/Do you drink coffee each day?/A few earnings comments
Party on Wayne, Party on Garth/Transportation costs/China pops late day and they buy more gold
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Rate cut odds jump on rise in the unemployment rate
Providing value still key/BoJ has another reason to hike rates
Claims data and the Challenger report
The Beige Book still not squaring with 2.5-3% GDP growth/Earnings comments/Ebullient sentiment
ISM services index drops, tariff worries reflected
All the news that's fit to email
More job openings in October vs September but hiring rate slows again
The loss of a Wall Street legend/Why does the Fed ignore markets?/Other
ISM mfr'g still underwater but a bit less so
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Quick data rundown on the goods trade deficit, claims, CapEx spend and GDP
That bifurcated consumer as well as with tech spend
Fed minutes uneventful but I think they are making a mistake if they cut again in December
Home prices/Consumer confidence, and expectations rise again for stock prices/Mfr'g/Home sales
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Services continue to carry the load/The partisan differential in consumer confidence
The two lane economy is not just a US thing/Retail earnings comments
Restrictive monetary policy? Really? For some for sure, for others clearly no
Value and convenience winning but not everywhere
Housing starts, multi family permits near 6 yr low
Only good to hear the word 'nuclear' when it comes to energy/Foreign treasury buying/Earnings
Builder confidence lifts post election
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Retail sales in line/Mfr'g upside in NY/Import prices bottoming?
Now a jump ball and Yellen missed a window/Earnings comments
Quick PPI and claims data review
Issac Newton and the FX market/Bullish sentiment back to extreme/Other notable stuff
40 yr JGB yield hits 16 yr high/The rate move impact on those in real estate/Other things
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Surveyed right before the election, confidence rises
Post Fed/China debt swap/Another round of mixed earnings comments
Claims and productivity data/Atlanta Fed's wage tracker
Where is the confidence?/ZipRecruiter on the labor market and other good stuff
10 yr auction decent, helped by back up in rates
ISM services at more than 2 yr high but more mixed under the hood
Those industries most interested/The Fed/Sentiment/Earnings comments
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
The manufacturing recession continues on
The jobs data and why Treasuries are rallying
Interesting earnings comments, particularly from Uber/Global PMIs
Inflation, income, spending and jobs data, the quick rundown all here
With September drop in mortgage rates, buyers step up but...
ADP jobs rundown/Slicing and dicing Q3 GDP
Slight but still growth/Earnings comments still a mixed bag/Rental rates
A clip to Q3 GDP/Confidence rises, particularly in the stock market/Job openings continue to fall
10 yr yield at a key level/Mfr'g still a challenge/Interesting earnings comments
Any geopolitical premium left?/Bond yields/Tech earnings/See what TriNet said on labor market
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Container shipping and air cargo rates/Durable goods orders
Still trying to connect the dots and it's still not connecting/Overseas data
A quick look at the US PMI and new home sales
The BoC/PMIs/Wash, rinse, repeat with yen/A bunch of interesting earnings comments
Global selloff in bonds/China gets some early traction on apartment sales
If she wins..., If he wins.../Have you seen silver?/FITB talks private credit competition
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Housing starts, sowing the seeds for an eventual rise in rents
Good riddance/China news/See what Manpower had to say about the labor market
The ECB cuts again/Claims, retail sales and Philly mfr'g surprise to the upside
Notwithstanding headline GDP, more evidence of the very mixed and uneven economy that I see
Oh behave/The Jane Fraser lay of the land/And other noteworthy stuff
At least for now, still looking like a rate tweaking cycle and other notable stuff
All the news you need to know and some comments on private credit, the new cool kid in town
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Consumer confidence slips a bit
The Fed gave us a rate cut but we've seen this since/Earnings comments/BoK rate cut
Inflation is not so easy to tame/Claims jump Hurricane Helene related?
10 yr auction meh/Minutes should be seen as old news
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Big job upside, fly is the workweek and who knows what final figure will look like
Port workers get paid/Other stuff
Claims data and some benefit thoughts
Container prices/sentiment/earnings comments/Bailey ready to cut again
A commodity check/And other interesting things
US manufacturing remains in a recession/Job openings lift but...
Powell gives us his base case and market responds
The last of the manufacturing PMI's ahead of tomorrow's ISM
We'll of course see if it works but some stocks got ridiculously cheap/European autos
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
The inflation stats along with spending, income and savings rate
Hang Seng vs S&P 500/New PM in Japan/Costco still selling more gold, read KMX comments
Home sales, give it a few more months to respond to lower rates
At least someone agrees with me now/Claims, durable goods orders
China again a big story/Sentiment/SNB cuts/Earnings comments, rising auto loan losses
Weekly mortgage apps/August new home sales
China follow through/Earnings comments
A look at Philly non-mfr'g/Consumer confidence weighed down by 35-54 yr olds and lower income cohort
China takes some bold steps, the big story of the day
Continued contrast b/w Services and Mfr'g/Buy duration here?
Once purchasing power is lost, it is lost forever
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Claims data/Philly mfr'g/Long rates rising after rate cut on short end
"take a right at the light, keep goin' straight until night, and they boy, you're on your own"
I did say to expect market whiplash
Expect some market whiplash today
Builder mood subdued currently, more optimistic prospectively but with little foot traffic
Not much this morning/Again,something is up with the USD
NY mfr'g surprises to the upside with a positive print
25 or 50 bp cut at 2pm est Wednesday is not binary event
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
ECB and quick review of the data
The AI tech trade won't go down without a fight/Other musings and see what Oxford said
CPI about in line, 50 bps rate cut odds down to just...
Life is about trade-offs/A few other things
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
The slowdown in hiring is unmistakable
Auto sales/Casey's tells us about their customer/Bowling is popular
ISM services, remains just above 50
Container price update/Hiring's continue to slow, firing's still muted
Labor market comments in Beige Book/Earnings call rundown/BoJ has another reason to hike
Maybe sounds like a .5-1% GDP growth rate, certainly not 3%
BoC cuts, as expected/Job openings shrink again
ISM mfr'g still weak, bad news is bad news now, and vice versa
The BoJ still really matters/Other things of note
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Inflation stats, savings rate falls to 16 yr low not including Covid
An eye opening read on the lower income consumer/Other good stuff
Pending home sales await a lower rate pick-me-up
Claims data and a 3 handle for Q2 GDP
The question every index, big cap investor now needs to ask/Earnings run through
Another hike to come?/No lift still in purchases/Earnings comments
Home prices, let's draw the trendline/Consumer confidence mixed/Mfr'g recession continues on
I'm watching the Singapore dollar, are you?
A look at capital spending, continuing to flat line
I did some due diligence Friday night/Not much else going on
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Quick rundown on Powell speech
Step into Powell's shoes/Ueda speaks/The still uneven and seemingly fragile economy
As it is in the Eurozone, the 'tale of two cities' remains the case in the US/Housing sales
An update on banking/'Value' is the new sexy word as was 'AI'/Other good stuff
Minutes uneventful but job revision raises odds for 50 bps in September
Old news but very relevant/Earnings comments/The price is too damn high
The US dollar and gold/Used cars/Company comments/'Silent Defaults'
A change in focus/Stock market really matters for the economy/MSG/7-11
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
The data dump review/Yields jump back
Echo of 'wage and price' controls/Earnings comments/Overseas data
Ahead of CPI/HD comments/RBNZ cuts/Other
Sentiment update/The consumer, HD/Earnings picture/Small business/Overseas
How big were those yen shorts on the CME?/Interesting earnings comments
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
The higher vol environment leads to a big response to claims
And ZipRecruiter said this on the labor market...
The BoJ already has shaky knees with tightening/Travel & leisure story becoming more mixed
The cry for the inter-meeting cut/Other interesting things
ISM services rundown/What stocks do from here is really important for overall economy
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
ISM mfr'g still soft and now the employment component is buckling
Further labor market moderation/Productivity data
Gold/Sentiment/BoE cuts, barely/Earnings comments/PMIs
Verbal constipation on a September rate cut
The FOMC statement nudges, doesn't push us to a Sept rate cut but Powell likely will
Chicago mfr'g joins others in contraction/Housing sales lift in June
Jobs and wage data/Purchase apps not lifting yet with drop in mortgage rates
Consumer confidence mixed/Private sector job openings near 3 1/2 yr low
'I want the best of both worlds and honey, I know what it's worth'
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Inflation, income, spending and savings rate data rundown
Yea, about a 2% growth economy ytd but we must continue to look under the hood
GDP beats estimates/Claims data
Yesterday didn't come out of nowhere/CPI trendline/Earnings comments/Overseas stuff
BoC cuts rates as expected/US PMI rundown/New home sales and Redfin said what Zillow said
I got a lot of earnings comments here but worth the read
2 yr auction excellent, all in on rate cuts
A quick review of regional services, mfr'g and the national housing data
The smoke signals ahead of BoJ meeting next week/Some earnings comments
Another drama filled weekend/I'm feeling big moves in next two weeks/Other good stuff
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Maybe a global rate tweaking cycle instead?/TIC data/Earnings comments/Japan CPI
No surprise with ECB/Claims reverting higher again/Philly mfr'g the pleasant surprise
Sentiment now so giddy that a correction is ripe/Shipping cost update/Earnings comments/Overseas
The Trump Trade goes both ways and the BoJ and MOF get some relief/Other good stuff
Builder confidence softens further/Zillow highlights growing inventory
Upside surprise in retail sales/Import prices do too
At least in the NY area, the manufacturing recession continues on in July
Objectively looking at Trump trade/More euphoria/Air cargo/Earnings comments/Yen/China
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
The lower income consumer is in their own personal recession
The Russell 2000 rally was not some random event/Yen intervention/Earnings comments/China
Inflation continues to moderate, September cut is a lock I believe/Claims data, holiday influenced
I promise/Sentiment/No sushi please/Pound at 1 yr high/Gold
Finally a question on the size of the Fed's balance sheet
Another reminder of the stretched consumer/Other stuff
Credit spread check/Small business look/Taiwan loving the AI spend
How should we now define 'the market'?/Hopefully some reconciliation coming/Other notable stuff
One last quick thing on job openings
"Wave that flag, wave it wide and high"/Dallas Banking survey/A dove cries/Eurozone CPI/Oil
US manufacturing remains in contraction, further thoughts on broader economy
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Inflation stats, along with spending, income and savings rate
The PredictIt response/Housing price hopes, rent news/Consumers challenged/Overseas
Going back to 2001, May pending home sales hit new low
Quick review of cap ex spending and the jobs market
Home sales data, inventory check
Home prices now up 48% since Feb 2020/Consumer confidence mixed/Mfr'g recession continues
My first morning look but 'What were you thinking?'/POOL/Dovish and hawkish talk
'Sunshine daydream'/Sentiment/You see this AI survey?/Yen teasing 160 again
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Still sounding like a 1.5% type economy/Global PMI's roll in, UK mentions 'spiking' shipping costs
If you're trading GME, don't quit your day job/Extended/Other good stuff
NY mfr'g remains in contraction but hopes for improvement
Two lane economy coincides with two lane stock market/French markets/US oil production topping/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Import prices/It's the cumulative rise in inflation, stupid
BoJ being even more patient but.../CAC back to flat/Gary Friedman comments and more
Update on shipping costs/Sentiment/BoJ/'Complex'
Last thing on Powell and rates, I promise
Fixing this 2 yr yield mention in bold
Consumer price inflation stats, all you need to know
Quick Fed preview/Gushing over AI/'consumers shopping episodically'/Other stuff
Solid 10 yr note auction, why?
Consumer vibes/Bond yields/NFIB/UK jobs
Sorry Benjamin Graham/EU/Air cargo rates/Other good stuff
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Payroll rundown and always important to look under the hood
ECB, an easing or just less restrictive?/Jobs data, including Challenger
BoC rate cut/ISM services, mixed internals and see what was said on employment
Rate cut odds/BoJ gets another reason to hike/Some data and earnings calls
The demand for labor continues to moderate
Modi and the NDA/Yen quietly at one month high/Other notable stuff
ISM Mfr'g, the bounce along the bottom continues
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
PCE inflation stats along with income and spending, yields fall in response
Home sales of existing homes are depressed
Claims data/Larger goods deficit could lead to Q2 trim/Q1 revision
A succinct review of the Fed's Beige Book and regional comments on inflation and labor market
7 yr auction as weak as the 5 yr
I'll mention rising JGB yields AGAIN/Other notable stuff
Poor 5 yr auction has yields at highs of day and 10 yr back above 4.50%
Corrected consumer confidence chart
Consumer confidence rebounds, internals though still mixed/Home prices continue higher
Euphoric read is back/New jobs stat/JGB yields continue higher/Euro trading well
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Durable goods orders still not growing much/See what happened when the last tariff war took place
Trade down in tires but HOKA's are killing it/See what Workday said/Other stuff
US PMI, inflation volatility apparent/Home sales
Container rates jump again on the week/Claims data
Sentiment check/Credit spreads in light of this.../PMI's/Notable earnings comments
'Play it by ear' monetary policy
Home sales, the winners and losers
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
China's big news/Container prices jump again/Walmart comments
Claims data/Import prices jump/Mfr'g remains punk/Single family starts ok, multi family not
'Every picture tells a story' sang Rod Stewart/Other good stuff
Home builder sentiment falters
The slow drip of inflation deceleration/Retail sales softer/Mfr'g still in recession
All the news that's fit to email
PPI data, initial alarm but then revisions were seen
Tariffs, ugh/Small business/Keep eye on JGB yields/Other
Some alarming budget stats/JGB yields up again/Experiential spend/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
A trifecta of worries leads to a sharp drop in consumer confidence
A 'wink and a nod'?/Shipping rates/Silver/ZIP on labor market/Important company comments
Claims data breaks out, at least for one week
Harris Poll of BNPL is must read/Other consumer comments/BoE wants to cut, BoJ wants to hike
Container rates/Loan officer survey/A few notable company comments
Service sector carrying global growth still/Very interesting rent commentary from CPT
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
The Hang Seng trade is now working out/More mixed earnings commentary, the good and not so good
Quick review of claims data, what Challenger said about hiring trends and productivity
Succinct Summation of Powell's comments/Yen intervention again/More mixed bag company comments
"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice"
US manufacturing back in contraction/Demand for workers lessening
Jobs data from ADP/Yield response, Treasury issuance
Ahead of the Fed/The DEA pivot/Further mixed economy confirmation from companies themselves
Further mfr'g weakness in Chicago region/Confidence in the labor market falters/Home prices
Verbal intervention now becomes real/The other side wants to influence the Fed too/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Inflation data about in line/Savings rate falls to lowest since Oct 2022.
This can't be real/Yen at fresh 24 yr lows/A lot of important company comments, hopefully helpful
7 yr note auction, quick rundown
Finally, a hard data point that comes down to many of the anecdotes I've gone thru
Market sentiment/Company comments reflect the bifurcated economy
Quick review of durable goods orders which continue to flat line
Restrictive? We know it depends/Company comments of note/Yields up again globally
This squares more with what the Beige Book said on the US economy/Home sales
Succinct Summation of a Very Busy Week
Claims data little changed/Philly mfr'g rebounds but internals still mixed
Using again the G7 to help stem the FX volatility but verbal threats only go so far
What's your definition of 'slightly'?
Central bank words are carefully chose/Earnings comments/Other
Enjoy the rent slowdown while we can
Why the weak yen matters for us all and others not happy about their weak currency/Other must reads
Quick review of home builder sentiment
Modest unwind of Friday trade, it certainly could have been worse/What the banks said
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
UoM, "some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled"
Costco's gold business picking up/Important macro comments/Other
30 yr auction not good but better than the others this week
PPI, Claims data/The ECB and Lagarde speaks
Rates, inflation rundown/Company earnings comments/Sentiment
CPI rundown, am I going to start hearing inflation ex food, energy, housing and insurance?
Ahead of CPI and the focus on rents/Goods prices bottoming?/Other notables
Small business just ain't feeling it/Consumer survey/When I wake up in the morning...
Euphoria update/Immigrant influence/Yes, gold is money/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
More evidence of our mixed economy/All that glitters can also be silver/Other
ADP jobs data and good for you if you found a new job
Commodity prices rising again as are bond yields globally/C&I loans outstanding keep shrinking/Other
Euphoria is here/"When you wake up in the morning do you care about the price of gold?"
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events, including today's data
Claims trend the same/Chicago mfr'g weak/Home sales as expected/Confidence lifts
Some port stats/Tougher yen talk/That word 'choiceful' again/Other
Core durable goods orders continue to flat line/Philly non-mfr'g still negative
Let's hope they are wrong/Commodity prices nearing a 2 yr high/Dallas mfr'g/Other
"Space for patience"/"I feel something strange about it"/C&I loans fall again/Other good stuff
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
US mfr'g and services PMI, Jay Powell should read the inflation comments
BoE sits tight, not ready for cut yet it seems/Claims and mfr'g data
Maybe one day the world's investment decisions all won't be based on days like today
Comparing now vs then/Michael Dell hasn't forgotten
Housing starts - single family leading the way as multi family catches its breath.
"We have ended our extraordinary monetary easing scheme"/Other important stuff
Builders feel better but traffic still slow and lumber prices again on the move
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
No rebound in core retail sales/Higher PPI/Annual seasonal adjustment in Claims data
You now need a telescope to find a Bear/Commodity prices getting jumpy/Company comments/JGB yields
After one big cheap money party, now a different time/Wage info flowing in from Japan/Other
10 yr note auction mixed to the soft side
Parabolic is parabolic, whether in the late 1990's, 2021 or today/China and Japan
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Payroll data, June rate cut odds up to 80%
Claims data and something to watch in Challenger report/ECB and Lagarde lead to bond rally
"The great resignation has turned into the big stay"
ADP a touch light, much slower trend than BLS/Powell was brief and said nothing new
US services from ISM and S&P Global, see employment stats and comments ahead of payroll report
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Inflation stats about in line/Income, spending and savings rate data
Are we there yet? Just about it seems/Company comments/India blows the doors off in Q4
7 yr auction the best of the bunch
Consumer confidence slips/Mfr'g, "I have no idea what is going to happen"
Core durable goods orders still flat lining
Another contrarian idea/Company comments/Getting closer to the end of NIRP in Japan
Another soft auction and QT discussion now really important
New home sales data/Existing home market needs baby boomers to down size
When will the ECB cut, after the Fed/Good deflation/Leisure spend by the US consumer
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Wants to cut but not yet, wants to cut but not by much/US PMI/Housing stats
Claims data, yields at multi month highs in response
The new asset class/Sentiment/Japan/PMI's/Company comments
Important takeaways from Fed's January get together
20 yr bond auction was not pretty
Banking conditions/'Spending fatigue'/Retail comments/Other notable stuff
Again, be aware of one's investing surroundings/Other notable stuff
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Multi family construction is collapsing
The disinflation is not so immaculate
Central bank talk here, in Europe and Japan/The Chinese consumer is coming back/Other stuff
Builders hoping for rate cuts, buyers still facing pricy options
Succinct review of the data dump
Another parabola has been sighted/A lot of other good stuff including the Cisco macro concerns
More on insurance costs and rents/Company comments/That 150 yen level again
We can't just snap our fingers back to 2%
I know a parabola when I see one/Other good stuff
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
CEO confidence/The stress of CRE will only continue, some math/ECB pushback/Company comments of note
30 yr auction mostly good, yields off highs in response
'Sustained' used again/Live Entertainment continues to rock and roll/Other important stuff
A good 10 yr auction and have to ask why
Consumer balance sheets and rising delinquency rates/Company earnings comments/Other
The SLOOS report and other notable things
JGB's/Bowman/Gold/Cannabis/Renter Nation/Other
Succinct Summation of the Busy Week's Events:
US Mfr'g, some hopes for restocking but prices move higher again
Claims tick up/Productivity gains
Fed balance sheet/Unlike Fed, BoE mentions Middle East risks/Company comments/Other
Still not ready to cut just yet/We await balance sheet thoughts
Hard data confirming all the anecdotes I gave you today/Yellen and the yield curve/ECI
More anecdotes of slowing pace of hiring/Other great company comments/Rents and other stuff
Home prices/JOLTS data/Consumer confidence/And bond yields back to pre QRA news
No chance they cut in March/ECB comments lead to bond rally/Earnings comments of note
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Upside to spending but savings rate falls to lowest in a year/Inflation stats about as expected
Square this up for me please/Key earnings comments/Tokyo inflation cools
One more thing, long yields move lower in response to Christine Lagarde comments
GDP upside, half of which comes from weaker inflation deflator/Claims data
An interesting morning and a review of some important earnings calls/PMI's
Is a 'stabilization fund' any different than zero rates and QE? Not really/BoJ/US economy
"That's never happened before"
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Sentiment/High end spend/Other earnings of note/Japan CPI
Claims data, yields rise in response/Philly mfr'g joins NY in contracting again/Housing stats
The anecdotal signs of the hiring slowdown/Shipping cost update/Some earnings comments
Retail sales better than expected and I'm sure BNPL helped
Rate cut odds, inflation breakevens/Consumer spending intentions/China
Governor Waller speaks, Treasury response
NY mfr'g a disaster but hopes it can't get worse
A catalyst driven contrarian call/'firmly' and 'surely'/Bank comments/Other
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Supply chain Covid nightmares reemerge/Bank stuff/Burberry misses/China
The inflation stat rundown and claims data
Maybe QT extends out longer/Fresh read on container prices/Overseas stuff/KB Homes
Another big time trade off/Some company comments/Japan
More Fed talk has market at 5 cuts from 6/Earnings pre-announcments/Other important stuff
Lorie Logan implicitly highlights how tough ending QT will be/comparing 10 yr yield, then vs now
Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Ahead of jobs data/Sentiment/RRP falling fast/Rents/Other
Jobs data, both ADP and claims
Shipping costs/Banking conditions/Autos/PMI's
Will the laundered minutes be used to close the gap?/Still a long runway ahead in the rate hike lags