Sitemap - 2024 - The Boock Report

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

The slowdown in hiring is unmistakable

Auto sales/Casey's tells us about their customer/Bowling is popular

ISM services, remains just above 50

Container price update/Hiring's continue to slow, firing's still muted

Labor market comments in Beige Book/Earnings call rundown/BoJ has another reason to hike

Maybe sounds like a .5-1% GDP growth rate, certainly not 3%

BoC cuts, as expected/Job openings shrink again

Soft data, AI trade in question but some acrophobia too/Commodities/More PMIs/Dollar Tree uses word 'immense'

ISM mfr'g still weak, bad news is bad news now, and vice versa

The BoJ still really matters/Other things of note

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Inflation stats, savings rate falls to 16 yr low not including Covid

An eye opening read on the lower income consumer/Other good stuff

Pending home sales await a lower rate pick-me-up

Claims data and a 3 handle for Q2 GDP

The question every index, big cap investor now needs to ask/Earnings run through

Another hike to come?/No lift still in purchases/Earnings comments

Home prices, let's draw the trendline/Consumer confidence mixed/Mfr'g recession continues on

I'm watching the Singapore dollar, are you?

A look at capital spending, continuing to flat line

I did some due diligence Friday night/Not much else going on

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Quick rundown on Powell speech

Step into Powell's shoes/Ueda speaks/The still uneven and seemingly fragile economy

As it is in the Eurozone, the 'tale of two cities' remains the case in the US/Housing sales

Quick claims data review

An update on banking/'Value' is the new sexy word as was 'AI'/Other good stuff

Minutes uneventful but job revision raises odds for 50 bps in September

Old news but very relevant/Earnings comments/The price is too damn high

The US dollar and gold/Used cars/Company comments/'Silent Defaults'

A change in focus/Stock market really matters for the economy/MSG/7-11

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

The data dump review/Yields jump back

Echo of 'wage and price' controls/Earnings comments/Overseas data

CPI rundown

Ahead of CPI/HD comments/RBNZ cuts/Other

PPI rundown

Sentiment update/The consumer, HD/Earnings picture/Small business/Overseas

How big were those yen shorts on the CME?/Interesting earnings comments

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Some things of note

The higher vol environment leads to a big response to claims

And ZipRecruiter said this on the labor market...

Terrible 10 yr auction

The BoJ already has shaky knees with tightening/Travel & leisure story becoming more mixed

The cry for the inter-meeting cut/Other interesting things

ISM services rundown/What stocks do from here is really important for overall economy

That was some carry trade...

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Focus shifts to economy & away from rate cuts/Some notable data points/A lot of good earnings comments

ISM mfr'g still soft and now the employment component is buckling

Further labor market moderation/Productivity data

Gold/Sentiment/BoE cuts, barely/Earnings comments/PMIs

Verbal constipation on a September rate cut

The FOMC statement nudges, doesn't push us to a Sept rate cut but Powell likely will

Chicago mfr'g joins others in contraction/Housing sales lift in June

Jobs and wage data/Purchase apps not lifting yet with drop in mortgage rates

A lot of good stuff here

Consumer confidence mixed/Private sector job openings near 3 1/2 yr low

Some things going on

'I want the best of both worlds and honey, I know what it's worth'

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Inflation, income, spending and savings rate data rundown

Yea, about a 2% growth economy ytd but we must continue to look under the hood

7 yr auction was good

GDP beats estimates/Claims data

Yesterday didn't come out of nowhere/CPI trendline/Earnings comments/Overseas stuff

BoC cuts rates as expected/US PMI rundown/New home sales and Redfin said what Zillow said

I got a lot of earnings comments here but worth the read

2 yr auction excellent, all in on rate cuts

A quick review of regional services, mfr'g and the national housing data

The smoke signals ahead of BoJ meeting next week/Some earnings comments

Another drama filled weekend/I'm feeling big moves in next two weeks/Other good stuff

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Maybe a global rate tweaking cycle instead?/TIC data/Earnings comments/Japan CPI

No surprise with ECB/Claims reverting higher again/Philly mfr'g the pleasant surprise

Sentiment now so giddy that a correction is ripe/Shipping cost update/Earnings comments/Overseas

Quick Beige Book review - high inflation the cure for high inflation, profit margin pressures growing

Housing starts data

The Trump Trade goes both ways and the BoJ and MOF get some relief/Other good stuff

Builder confidence softens further/Zillow highlights growing inventory

Upside surprise in retail sales/Import prices do too

A few things

At least in the NY area, the manufacturing recession continues on in July

Objectively looking at Trump trade/More euphoria/Air cargo/Earnings comments/Yen/China

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

The lower income consumer is in their own personal recession

PPI's upside surprise

The Russell 2000 rally was not some random event/Yen intervention/Earnings comments/China

Inflation continues to moderate, September cut is a lock I believe/Claims data, holiday influenced

I promise/Sentiment/No sushi please/Pound at 1 yr high/Gold

10 yr auction was good

Finally a question on the size of the Fed's balance sheet

Another reminder of the stretched consumer/Other stuff

Bond yields

Powell's prepared text review

Credit spread check/Small business look/Taiwan loving the AI spend

How should we now define 'the market'?/Hopefully some reconciliation coming/Other notable stuff

One last quick thing on job openings

Job opening data

"Wave that flag, wave it wide and high"/Dallas Banking survey/A dove cries/Eurozone CPI/Oil

US manufacturing remains in contraction, further thoughts on broader economy

Maybe debts and deficits now do matter?/Rig counts continue to fall/PMI's, pricing pressures bubble up again

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Inflation stats, along with spending, income and savings rate

The PredictIt response/Housing price hopes, rent news/Consumers challenged/Overseas

Going back to 2001, May pending home sales hit new low

Quick review of cap ex spending and the jobs market

What's the AI payoff?/Shipping rates continue up/'Choiceful', 'We're always certain about that uncertainty'

Home sales data, inventory check

Interesting comment from Lisa Cook/Earnings comments from CCL, FDX/CPI upside in Australia, jump in yields

Home prices now up 48% since Feb 2020/Consumer confidence mixed/Mfr'g recession continues

My first morning look but 'What were you thinking?'/POOL/Dovish and hawkish talk

'Sunshine daydream'/Sentiment/You see this AI survey?/Yen teasing 160 again

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Still sounding like a 1.5% type economy/Global PMI's roll in, UK mentions 'spiking' shipping costs

Labor market softening/Multi family construction slowing further/Philly flat lines but wow on inflation expectations

Sooner rather than later we'll know if it matters/Shipping costs jump again, inflation is not dead, inflation volatility is here to stay/Other

Retail sales pretty mixed

If you're trading GME, don't quit your day job/Extended/Other good stuff

NY mfr'g remains in contraction but hopes for improvement

Two lane economy coincides with two lane stock market/French markets/US oil production topping/Other

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Import prices/It's the cumulative rise in inflation, stupid

BoJ being even more patient but.../CAC back to flat/Gary Friedman comments and more

Claims pop, PPI does not

Update on shipping costs/Sentiment/BoJ/'Complex'

Last thing on Powell and rates, I promise

Fixing this 2 yr yield mention in bold

Fed gives the wording a modest tweak, and any cuts this year will be a tweak as well, whether one or two

Consumer price inflation stats, all you need to know

Quick Fed preview/Gushing over AI/'consumers shopping episodically'/Other stuff

Solid 10 yr note auction, why?

Consumer vibes/Bond yields/NFIB/UK jobs

Sorry Benjamin Graham/EU/Air cargo rates/Other good stuff

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Payroll rundown and always important to look under the hood

At least for now, a tweak/Some earnings comments and coffee prices going higher/Gold, China stays put in May

ECB, an easing or just less restrictive?/Jobs data, including Challenger

Container prices continue to spike/Make sure to read the retailer comments, "Everyone loves a bargain and Bargain is our middle name"

BoC rate cut/ISM services, mixed internals and see what was said on employment

Labor market data via ADP

Rate cut odds/BoJ gets another reason to hike/Some data and earnings calls

The demand for labor continues to moderate

Modi and the NDA/Yen quietly at one month high/Other notable stuff

ISM Mfr'g, the bounce along the bottom continues

A bunch of interesting things here on home prices, credit spreads, CRE debt, rig counts, U-Haul, & signs of mfr'g recovery

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

PCE inflation stats along with income and spending, yields fall in response

Parsing the word 'restrictive'/Eurozone and Tokyo CPI stats/A bunch of earnings comments, make sure to read every word

Home sales of existing homes are depressed

Claims data/Larger goods deficit could lead to Q2 trim/Q1 revision

Container costs jump again as Houthi's won't stop/Cap ex shift rather than growth in the pie, and other notable earnings stuff/Other

A succinct review of the Fed's Beige Book and regional comments on inflation and labor market

7 yr auction as weak as the 5 yr

I'll mention rising JGB yields AGAIN/Other notable stuff

Poor 5 yr auction has yields at highs of day and 10 yr back above 4.50%

Corrected consumer confidence chart

Consumer confidence rebounds, internals though still mixed/Home prices continue higher

Euphoric read is back/New jobs stat/JGB yields continue higher/Euro trading well

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Durable goods orders still not growing much/See what happened when the last tariff war took place

Trade down in tires but HOKA's are killing it/See what Workday said/Other stuff

US PMI, inflation volatility apparent/Home sales

Container rates jump again on the week/Claims data

Sentiment check/Credit spreads in light of this.../PMI's/Notable earnings comments

'Play it by ear' monetary policy

Home sales, the winners and losers

Transports still lag/'Under pressure'/It's not just copper, gold and silver/10 yr JGB yield hits 1.00%

Refreshing to hear

The commodity run

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

China's big news/Container prices jump again/Walmart comments

Claims data/Import prices jump/Mfr'g remains punk/Single family starts ok, multi family not

'Every picture tells a story' sang Rod Stewart/Other good stuff

Home builder sentiment falters

The slow drip of inflation deceleration/Retail sales softer/Mfr'g still in recession

All the news that's fit to email

Copper price at record high

PPI data, initial alarm but then revisions were seen

Tariffs, ugh/Small business/Keep eye on JGB yields/Other

Some alarming budget stats/JGB yields up again/Experiential spend/Other

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

A trifecta of worries leads to a sharp drop in consumer confidence

A 'wink and a nod'?/Shipping rates/Silver/ZIP on labor market/Important company comments

Claims data breaks out, at least for one week

Harris Poll of BNPL is must read/Other consumer comments/BoE wants to cut, BoJ wants to hike

An important read if you're interested in CRE/Ueda steps up his yen rhetoric/Riksbank cuts/Company comments

Container rates/Loan officer survey/A few notable company comments

Service sector carrying global growth still/Very interesting rent commentary from CPT

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

The jobs report rundown

The Hang Seng trade is now working out/More mixed earnings commentary, the good and not so good

Quick review of claims data, what Challenger said about hiring trends and productivity

Succinct Summation of Powell's comments/Yen intervention again/More mixed bag company comments

"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice"

US manufacturing back in contraction/Demand for workers lessening

Jobs data from ADP/Yield response, Treasury issuance

Ahead of the Fed/The DEA pivot/Further mixed economy confirmation from companies themselves

Further mfr'g weakness in Chicago region/Confidence in the labor market falters/Home prices

Government pay now pays

Why are tax receipts lower than expected?/So many anecdotes today continue to point to the uneven economy I see

Verbal intervention now becomes real/The other side wants to influence the Fed too/Other

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Inflation data about in line/Savings rate falls to lowest since Oct 2022.

This can't be real/Yen at fresh 24 yr lows/A lot of important company comments, hopefully helpful

7 yr note auction, quick rundown

Quick home sales review

Finally, a hard data point that comes down to many of the anecdotes I've gone thru

Market sentiment/Company comments reflect the bifurcated economy

Quick review of durable goods orders which continue to flat line

Restrictive? We know it depends/Company comments of note/Yields up again globally

This squares more with what the Beige Book said on the US economy/Home sales

I guess the FTC has never heard of LVMH or Gucci/PMI day, bifurcated growth & inflation pressures still/Company comments

Net spec yen shorts hit 17 yr high, JGB yields/Company notables/AI helps Taiwan and South Korean exports

Succinct Summation of a Very Busy Week

Scary night but could have been worse/Tariffs pain me/Some very relevant earnings comments, especially from Manpower

Claims data little changed/Philly mfr'g rebounds but internals still mixed

Using again the G7 to help stem the FX volatility but verbal threats only go so far

What's your definition of 'slightly'?

Central bank words are carefully chose/Earnings comments/Other

Enjoy the rent slowdown while we can

Why the weak yen matters for us all and others not happy about their weak currency/Other must reads

Quick review of home builder sentiment

Headline retail sales look great, under the hood is much more mixed/Mfr'g recession likely continuing

Modest unwind of Friday trade, it certainly could have been worse/What the banks said

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

UoM, "some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled"

Costco's gold business picking up/Important macro comments/Other

30 yr auction not good but better than the others this week

PPI, Claims data/The ECB and Lagarde speaks

Rates, inflation rundown/Company earnings comments/Sentiment

10 yr auction was bad

CPI rundown, am I going to start hearing inflation ex food, energy, housing and insurance?

Ahead of CPI and the focus on rents/Goods prices bottoming?/Other notables

Small business just ain't feeling it/Consumer survey/When I wake up in the morning...

Euphoria update/Immigrant influence/Yes, gold is money/Other

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

The jobs headline looks great but contributes to more confusion when adding other things so help me out

Outside of pizza, what's better than french fries?/The Fed should be OUT of the business of dictating the fed funds rate/Kishida chimes in

More evidence of our mixed economy/All that glitters can also be silver/Other

ISM, S&P Global print 3 month lows in US services/Inflation down in ISM but make sure to read what S&P Global said

ADP jobs data and good for you if you found a new job

Read what Paychex said before this week's job data/More tells on the US consumer, including auto sales/Other

Job openings data

Commodity prices rising again as are bond yields globally/C&I loans outstanding keep shrinking/Other

Manufacturing indices now above 50 but price pressures pick up too/Bond yields back above 1:59pm est level on FOMC day

Euphoria is here/"When you wake up in the morning do you care about the price of gold?"

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events, including today's data

Claims trend the same/Chicago mfr'g weak/Home sales as expected/Confidence lifts

When you title a speech "There's Still No Rush", you have a point to make/Company comments, including Gary Friedman

A good auction

Some port stats/Tougher yen talk/That word 'choiceful' again/Other

If CPI and PCE included home prices instead.../Consumer confidence moving sideways but all bulled up on stocks/Richmond mfr'g contraction remains

Core durable goods orders continue to flat line/Philly non-mfr'g still negative

Let's hope they are wrong/Commodity prices nearing a 2 yr high/Dallas mfr'g/Other

Home sales news

"Space for patience"/"I feel something strange about it"/C&I loans fall again/Other good stuff

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Sounds more shaky than strong with the consumer/Global trade still soft but Germany and UK are hopeful for rebound

US mfr'g and services PMI, Jay Powell should read the inflation comments

BoE sits tight, not ready for cut yet it seems/Claims and mfr'g data

Catching the falling inflation knife rather than waiting for it to land/SNB cuts, Taiwan hikes/Other good stuff

Powell clearly dovish, short end loves it as does stocks but long end doesn't and neither do inflation breakevens

Maybe one day the world's investment decisions all won't be based on days like today

Comparing now vs then/Michael Dell hasn't forgotten

Housing starts - single family leading the way as multi family catches its breath.

"We have ended our extraordinary monetary easing scheme"/Other important stuff

Builders feel better but traffic still slow and lumber prices again on the move

No C&I loan growth, default rates rising/Food prices/"I was trying to count how many times you mentioned AI in your prepared remarks, and then I just lost count"

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

An eye popping insurance rate request/Company comments, ULTA won't be happy with TikTok ban/Japan, China

No rebound in core retail sales/Higher PPI/Annual seasonal adjustment in Claims data

You now need a telescope to find a Bear/Commodity prices getting jumpy/Company comments/JGB yields

After one big cheap money party, now a different time/Wage info flowing in from Japan/Other

10 yr note auction mixed to the soft side

Rate cut update

CPI data rundown

Rate cut odds ahead of CPI, QT more my focus at this point/Small business less optimistic/Other good stuff

Parabolic is parabolic, whether in the late 1990's, 2021 or today/China and Japan

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Payroll data, June rate cut odds up to 80%

Some things of importance

Claims data and something to watch in Challenger report/ECB and Lagarde lead to bond rally

A lot here but a must read...

"The great resignation has turned into the big stay"

ADP a touch light, much slower trend than BLS/Powell was brief and said nothing new

Retail comments, CrowdStrike jabs Palo Alto/Yen rising as we hear from 'people familiar with the matter'

US services from ISM and S&P Global, see employment stats and comments ahead of payroll report

Bostic matters/Gold at record high on intraday basis too/Overseas PMI's mentioning continued price pressures/Other

Gold has record high close and not a peep/RRP shrinks notably, liquidity wave nearing an end/Other good stuff

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

US mfr'g remains in recession but some green inventory rebuild shoots?/Construction spending on mfr'g facilities/Consumer sentiment

And now this...

Treasuries rallying but not inflation breakevens post PCE/Continuing claims back above 1.9mm/Chicago PMI/Home sales

Inflation stats about in line/Income, spending and savings rate data

Are we there yet? Just about it seems/Company comments/India blows the doors off in Q4

"Guideposts for a New Central Banker" and important comments on Fed's balance sheet and QT/Retail comments and some on CRE

7 yr auction the best of the bunch

Consumer confidence slips/Mfr'g, "I have no idea what is going to happen"

Core durable goods orders still flat lining

Another contrarian idea/Company comments/Getting closer to the end of NIRP in Japan

Another soft auction and QT discussion now really important

New home sales data/Existing home market needs baby boomers to down size

When will the ECB cut, after the Fed/Good deflation/Leisure spend by the US consumer

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Another very bifurcated day/Waller backtracks/Labor market comments from Ian Siegel and other notable quotes.

Wants to cut but not yet, wants to cut but not by much/US PMI/Housing stats

Claims data, yields at multi month highs in response

The new asset class/Sentiment/Japan/PMI's/Company comments

Important takeaways from Fed's January get together

20 yr bond auction was not pretty

Banking conditions/'Spending fatigue'/Retail comments/Other notable stuff

Again, be aware of one's investing surroundings/Other notable stuff

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Multi family construction is collapsing

The disinflation is not so immaculate

Central bank talk here, in Europe and Japan/The Chinese consumer is coming back/Other stuff

Builders hoping for rate cuts, buyers still facing pricy options

Succinct review of the data dump

Another parabola has been sighted/A lot of other good stuff including the Cisco macro concerns

More on insurance costs and rents/Company comments/That 150 yen level again

We can't just snap our fingers back to 2%

I was off by about a half a trillion/Small business less optimistic, consumers more so/Semi reality/Other

I know a parabola when I see one/Other good stuff

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

CEO confidence/The stress of CRE will only continue, some math/ECB pushback/Company comments of note

30 yr auction mostly good, yields off highs in response

Quick claims data review

'Sustained' used again/Live Entertainment continues to rock and roll/Other important stuff

A good 10 yr auction and have to ask why

Consumer balance sheets and rising delinquency rates/Company earnings comments/Other

The SLOOS report and other notable things

The key service side of the US economy, employment component doesn't corroborate Friday, price pressures reemerge

JGB's/Bowman/Gold/Cannabis/Renter Nation/Other

Succinct Summation of the Busy Week's Events:

One more thing, rate cut odds

Can we be even more confused?

The haves and the have nots

US Mfr'g, some hopes for restocking but prices move higher again

Claims tick up/Productivity gains

Fed balance sheet/Unlike Fed, BoE mentions Middle East risks/Company comments/Other

Still not ready to cut just yet/We await balance sheet thoughts

Hard data confirming all the anecdotes I gave you today/Yellen and the yield curve/ECI

More anecdotes of slowing pace of hiring/Other great company comments/Rents and other stuff

Home prices/JOLTS data/Consumer confidence/And bond yields back to pre QRA news

Air cargo rates now jumping/Mfr'g still in contraction/Earnings comments/Eurozone economy still not growing

Treasury issuance news

No chance they cut in March/ECB comments lead to bond rally/Earnings comments of note

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Upside to spending but savings rate falls to lowest in a year/Inflation stats about as expected

Square this up for me please/Key earnings comments/Tokyo inflation cools

7 yr auction stats

One more thing, long yields move lower in response to Christine Lagarde comments

GDP upside, half of which comes from weaker inflation deflator/Claims data

No more games with BTFP/US PMI/Shipping/Sentiment/Company comments/"The German economy is stuck in a recession"

5 yr auction weak

An interesting morning and a review of some important earnings calls/PMI's

Is a 'stabilization fund' any different than zero rates and QE? Not really/BoJ/US economy

"That's never happened before"

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Sentiment/High end spend/Other earnings of note/Japan CPI

Claims data, yields rise in response/Philly mfr'g joins NY in contracting again/Housing stats

The anecdotal signs of the hiring slowdown/Shipping cost update/Some earnings comments

NAHB builder sentiment

Retail sales better than expected and I'm sure BNPL helped

Rate cut odds, inflation breakevens/Consumer spending intentions/China

Governor Waller speaks, Treasury response

NY mfr'g a disaster but hopes it can't get worse

A catalyst driven contrarian call/'firmly' and 'surely'/Bank comments/Other

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Wholesale prices benign but is it now old news? Inflation breakeven quietly at highest since mid November

Supply chain Covid nightmares reemerge/Bank stuff/Burberry misses/China

The inflation stat rundown and claims data

Maybe QT extends out longer/Fresh read on container prices/Overseas stuff/KB Homes

Another big time trade off/Some company comments/Japan

More Fed talk has market at 5 cuts from 6/Earnings pre-announcments/Other important stuff

Lorie Logan implicitly highlights how tough ending QT will be/comparing 10 yr yield, then vs now

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Employment component in ISM services falls to lowest since when survey began in 1997, not including Covid shutdowns

Job hiring clearly slowing and concentrated in only a few areas/Scratching my head with bond market response

Ahead of jobs data/Sentiment/RRP falling fast/Rents/Other

Jobs data, both ADP and claims

Shipping costs/Banking conditions/Autos/PMI's

The Fed tried but...

US mfr'g still contracting and read both ISM and S&P Global, though hopes for bottom/Job openings point to continued hiring slowdown

Will the laundered minutes be used to close the gap?/Still a long runway ahead in the rate hike lags

'Tangled up in blue' and the possible 2024 puts and takes