An interesting morning and a review of some important earnings calls/PMI's
What an interesting morning as we digest some big moves and telling dynamics. The Hang Seng spiked another 3.6% as we saw follow thru from the 'stabilization fund' story and an expected cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 bps on February 5th (expected to release 1 trillion yuan or about $140b). Netflix subscriber growth reflects the continued desire to spend on entertainment while Texas Instruments earnings miss and lower guidance highlights the continued recession in manufacturing. We also saw a spike in JGB yields as the markets gear up for a seeming further tightening and maybe an end to NIRP in coming months in Japan.
The 10 yr JGB yield rose another 5 bps to .72% and traded as high as .75% and that is the highest close since December 12th but there was no follow through to European bonds and US Treasuries today (though both have been selling off the past few weeks). The 40 yr yield jumped by 6 bps to 2.08% and that is the highest closing yield since early November. The yen is also higher and back below 148.
Texas Instruments, a company that makes 80,000 products for over 100,000 customers in end markets such as industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment and enterprise systems, said "Our results reflect increasing weakness in industrial and a sequential decline in automotive as customers work to reduce their inventory levels...First, the industrial market was down mid-teens as we saw that increasing weakness. The automotive market was down mid-single digits after 3 1/2 years of very strong growth. Personal electronics was about flat. And, next, communications equipment was down low single digits. And, lastly, enterprise systems grew low single digits."
"and as the guide would suggest, we believe that we'll just continue to operate in a weak environment, and one where customers are continuing to rebalance their inventories overall."
Netflix said with their 12% y/o/y revenue growth, "Our healthy top line growth reflects the benefits of paid sharing, our recent price changes and the strength of our underlying business driven by a strong slate." They expect 16% FX neutral growth in the current quarter and raised its 2024 operating margin estimate because of a weaker dollar.
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