NY mfr'g surprises to the upside with a positive print

The September NY manufacturing index, the 1^st September industrial number to be seen, surprised to the upside with a print of +11.5 vs -4.7 in August and vs the estimate of -4.0.

Keeping in mind the volatile nature of this data, new orders rebounded to +9.4 from -7.9 and vs -.6 in the month before and that led the way. Backlogs too got back above zero at 2.1 from -7.4. Inventories were exactly at zero and compares with the 6 month average of -1.7. Prices paid and those received fell a touch m/o/m. Employment remained weak at -5.7 vs -6.7 in the month before. The workweek though did bounce to +2.9 from -17.8.

The 6 month business outlook bounced too to 30.6 from 22.9 and that is the best since March 2022 (which ended up being badly wrong unfortunately at the time). Of note, the 6 month outlook for prices paid rose to the highest since February 2023 and let’s hope they are wrong here too. The negative was the expectation for a drop in capital spending as it went to -2.1 from +8.5 and that is the lowest since May 2020.