Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Core (taking out autos, building materials and gasoline) retail sales in October unexpectedly fell by one tenth m/o/m vs the estimate of up .3% BUT was completely offset by a 5 tenths upward revision to September to a gain of 1.2%.

2)There was big upside in the first November industrial figure seen from the NY Fed where its manufacturing index jumped to 31.2 from -11.9 and well above the estimate of zero. The six month outlook was still good at 33.2 but down about 6 pts m/o/m. 

3)Initial jobless claims totaled 217k vs 221k last week and that was 3k below expectations. The 4 week average fell to 221k from 227k as a print of 242k dropped out of the calculation. Continuing claims fell by 11k off its highest level since November 2021 to 1.873mm.

4)With another tick up in mortgage rates with the average 30 yr at 6.86%, up 5 bps w/o/w, mortgage apps were little changed. Purchases rose 1.9% but after dropping by 5.1% in the week before.

5)The October NFIB small business optimism index rose to 93.7 from 91.5 and that matches the best level since February 2022. The bottom line from the NFIB, "With the election over, small business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions. Although optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled jobs openings, and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge our Main Streets, but owners remain hopeful as they head toward the holiday season."

6)In the NY Survey of Consumer Expectations for October, inflation expectations for 1 yr, 3 yr and 5 yr all fell m/o/m. The jobs responses improved while spending growth expectations were unchanged and less people fear missing a debt payment.