A look at Philly non-mfr'g/Consumer confidence weighed down by 35-54 yr olds and lower income cohort

Out at 8:30am est was the Philly Fed non-manufacturing index which came in at -6.1, not as bad as the -25.1 seen in August but it’s only been positive twice going back to September 2022. The Philly Fed said “nonmanufacturing activity softened somewhat and remained weak.” The 6 month outlook did improve and “were more widespread for both firms and the region.” The internals are so volatile and all over the place month to month so I won’t burden you with those details but the headline number points to a continued lackluster tone in services/construction in this region.

Philly Non-Manufacturing index

The September Conference Board Consumer Confidence index disappointed with a print of 98.7 from 105.6 in August and that was below the estimate of 104. That’s the 3rd weakest figure going back to July 2022. It was at 132.6 in February 2020. The Present Situation led the drop as it fell by 10.3 pts m/o/m to 124.3 and that is the lowest level since March 2021 and was last seen in 2016 pre Covid. The Expectations component fell by 4.6 pts but rose by 5.2 pts in August and is holding well above its lows. One yr inflation expectations ticked up to 5.2% from 5% and vs 5.3% in July.