NY mfr'g a disaster but hopes it can't get worse

The 10 yr yield dipped a touch below 4% after the disastrous January NY manufacturing index that printed -43.7 from -14.5 and well worse than the estimate of -5. This index dates back to 2001 and outside of Covid when it fell to -78.2, we’ve not seen a figure this weak, even during the ’08-’09 recession when it touched -34.3. New orders plunged to -49.3 from -11.3 while backlogs were little changed at -24.2. Inventories continued to fall, at -7.4. Employment was -6.9 and that is the 5^th month in the past 6 under zero and the workweek fell too. Delivery times remained negative but less so while prices paid jumped to a 3 month high but those received fell.

The positive was the 6 month outlook which rose to 18.8 from 12.1 and that is a 3 month high. The outlook for new orders, backlogs, shipments and capital spending all rose m/o/m as they did too for employment and the workweek. Price expectations jumped with prices paid up 15 pts, the highest since February 2023 and expectations for prices received were higher too.