Last thing on Powell and rates, I promise

I include below the intraday charts in the 2 yr and 10 yr yields reflecting the wild moves after CPI and Powell.

Jay was purposely noncommittal on giving any opinion on the timing of a possible cut and I see no chance that he was one of the dots expecting two. That said, he did highlight that a trigger for a sooner rather than latter cut could take place because of a continued rise in the unemployment rate, among other possible factors more than just a further moderation in inflation.

He said that current policy is ‘well placed’ and they are getting what they want in terms of the direction in inflation. But, because he reiterated his belief that policy is currently ‘restrictive,’ however difficult that is to define, he said that ‘restrictive’ for too long can lead to accidents in the economy which he obviously wants to avoid.