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The question every index, big cap investor now needs to ask/Earnings run through

The question every index, big cap investor now needs to ask/Earnings run through

Peter Boockvar
Aug 29, 2024
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The stock market question we should now all be asking, post Nvidia's earnings where its clear that Wall Street earnings expectations and actual results have dramatically closed the gap, and where 5 of the 7 biggest stocks are now trading below their pre earnings levels (Meta and Apple above), even with the S&P 500 near its highs again, is there a possibility that a market baton could be passed now to other things. Is it now possible that the incredible outperformance where the biggest stocks now have market caps exceeding entire country GDP's will now be more pedestrian relative to the rest of the market as the AI spend/monetization hype quiets down? I believe it is but we'll of course see. 

By the way, I believe that unless Nvidia's gross profit margin of 75.7% (non GAAP) is sustainable, which I don't believe it is, the stock should be valued as a percent of sales rather than earnings and on that count, it's at 25x sales for the year ended 1/31/25. Stretch it out to 1/31/26 and it's at 18x. So when I hear from some that it's cheap, I cover my ears. 

With so many earnings releases to go thru, let's get to them and you'll still see a very mixed economic picture.

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