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Retail sales better than expected and I'm sure BNPL helped

Retail sales better than expected and I'm sure BNPL helped

Peter Boockvar
Jan 17, 2024
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Treasury yields are jumping again after core retail sales in the big holiday month of December exceeded expectations, rising by .8% m/o/m, a large 6 tenths above expectations and November was revised up by one tenth to a 5 tenths increase. Vehicle sales increased by 1.1% m/o/m and higher by 7.2% y/o/y as supply is more plentiful and incentives lift a bit. Building materials rose .4% m/o/m but after falling by one tenth last month and are down almost 6% y/o/y because of the slowdown in DIY due to the very low level of existing home sales.

Online retailing helped to drive the core rate of spend, rising by 1.5% m/o/m and 7% y/o/y. Clothing sales were strong too, rising by 1.5% m/o/m and 3.7% y/o/y. After 3 months of declines, department store sales rebounded by 3% m/o/m but are still lower by 3.8% y/o/y. Spending on restaurants and bars cooled as they were unchanged m/o/m but after a 1.7% jump in November and still up 10.8% y/o/y. Sales of food/beverages rose .2% m/o/m and 1% y/o/y and volume wise is pretty steady but moves around because of price.

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