Bostic matters/Gold at record high on intraday basis too/Overseas PMI's mentioning continued price pressures/Other

What Raphael Bostic says matters this year because he votes and at least right now, methodical is his approach as he said after their first rate cut in the 2nd half of the year, "I would probably not anticipate they would be back to back. Given the uncertainty, I think there is some appeal to acting and then seeing how participants in the markets, business leaders and families respond to that."

He laid out the reason why he wants to go slow as he's already seeing what's going in the stock and credit markets and what he's hearing from his business constituents. "This threat of what I'll call pent up exuberance is a new upside risk that I think bears scrutiny in coming months. As my staff and I have talked to business decision makers in recent weeks, the theme we've heard rings of expectant optimism." So, we've rallied ourselves out of more rate cuts and it seems that the only reason why he would vote for more is not because of a further slowing in inflation but because the unemployment rate jumps above 4%. 

He also addressed the balance sheet which we were told from Jay Powell that it will be on the discussion agenda in a few weeks, especially as the RRP continues to shrink in size. Similar to the more hands off approach in markets that the new KC president laid out a few weeks ago, amen, "In terms of QT, I'm hopeful that we can continue the pace that we're at for as long as possible. As we get further from the most acute moments of that emergency, I think it's appropriate for us to return to a more normal posture." This is important because we are approaching a time where QT will actually be a liquidity drain, not offset by the reduction in the RRP. 

So I'll mention gold again because it is now trading above that early December Sunday night spike and it is now at a fresh intraday high as well. Still very little talk about it as bitcoin instead has stole all the oxygen out of the room, for now. We remain bullish and long of gold, silver and the miners.

Gold

There wasn't any macro commentary in the Target earnings release as they reported great bottom line but in line comps and a slightly lowered Q1 guidance. We'll wait for the call but Brian Cornell on CNBC said, and I'm paraphrasing, 'We've seen a very resilient US consumer...The consumer is on a budget and is shopping carefully.'