Whether realized or not, the pull forward of orders is taking place/Unfortunately, there is not much left to cut/Value seeking consumer

Whether the tariff threats will be realized or not, we will continue to see a pull forward of orders from these threatened countries and others before anything is maybe implemented, something I've heard about anecdotally and this is what S&P Global said last week in its PMI, "Factories are meanwhile stepping up their purchases of imported inputs as they seek to front-run tariffs, putting pressure on supply chains to a degree not seen for over two years. Any further stretching of these supply lines could see prices move higher as demand outstrips supply."

I want to include here a screenshot from the Congressional Budget Office of the US budget to highlight how most of the spending by the US government is a necessity and there is little that is discretionary. Something we're all pretty much aware of but the visual is important and I believe that while we hope to see tighter spending constraints and a DOGE that cuts where it can, there isn't much low hanging fruit and means that we might not have a choice but to grow out of this towards a 3% stated goal of a budget deficit relative to GDP. 

If you add up mandatory spending (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security mostly) with interest expense and defense spending, that makes up about 86% of total federal government outlays in 2024. We're only talking about $1 trillion that is discretionary and much of this goes to finance the agencies and clearly a lot of unnecessary Congressional pet projects. Cut away there but only so much can be done to this budget unfortunately.

Here were some comments from yesterday's Dallas manufacturing index which remained below zero, but only slightly at -2.7 and there was certainly relief with both the election ending and its outcome, though worries about what tariffs we will get.