How can the Fed cut again in the face of this?/Do you drink coffee each day?/A few earnings comments
In a post election boost, the November NFIB Small Business Optimism index jumped 8 pts m/o/m, a rather large one month move to 101.7. That's the highest since June 2021. Where the lift was most notable was in the outlook as the 'Expect Better Economy' component spiked to +36% from -5%. Also, Expect Higher Sales went from -4% to +14% and Good Time to Expand rose 8 pts m/o/m to 14%. Capital spending plans rose by 6 pts to 28%, the most since January 2022 and there was a 3 pt gain in Plan to Increase Inventory.
On the labor market, there was a 3 pt rise in Plan to Hire to 18%, matching the highest since May 2023 and a 5 pt increase in compensation plans to 28%, the highest since December 2023. 'Positions not able to fill' rose 1 pt. The earnings trend gained 7 pts to -26% and credit conditions eased by 1 pt. There was a 3 pt rise in Higher Selling Prices to a 5 month high. Lastly, the average interest rate paid on a loan fell to 8.8% from 9.7%.
The NFIB said "The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners. Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three year streak of record high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations."
Now I'm not sure if this survey on small business is going to make it into the deliberations at the Federal Reserve but it should because how can they cut interest rates next week in the face of this burst of economic optimism post election, whether that optimism is realized or not? Shouldn't the Fed at least take a pause and wait and see? Yes they should.
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