Party on Wayne, Party on Garth/Transportation costs/China pops late day and they buy more gold

matter until it does but something we should continue to acknowledge and be aware from a short term trading and contrarian perspective. That is the ever rising bullish sentiment that continues to get more extreme. The updated Citi Panic/Euphoria index rose to .62 w/o/w from .58 in the week before. It's now about 50% above the Euphoria threshold and above the previous July peak. Again, Citi claims that above .41 is statistically significant in terms of the one year performance from here.

Ahead of the inflation stats this week, on Friday the Manheim used vehicle index measuring wholesale prices for November rose to the highest level since October 2023, up by 2.6% sequentially but flattish y/o/y. Manheim said "Wholesale values gave back a little bit of the strength we saw earlier in the month but depreciated less than what we normally see in November...tight supply in wholesale and retail markets will support healthy dealer demand through the final month of the year." Something to watch after the disinflation in goods prices we've seen. You've heard me say many times that with still below pre Covid trends in the sale of new cars means less used cars eventually in terms of supply.

Manheim Used Car Index

As we get closer to the holidays, air cargo rates continue higher. World ACD on Friday said "Worldwide air cargo rates rose to a 2024 high in November of US$ 2.76 per kilo, despite a slight (-2%) drop in flown tonnages compared with October." Average worldwide rates rose 6% m/o/m and are up 11% y/o/y. That combines both spot and contracted rates. As for spot rates, they are up 21% y/o/y and contract rates are higher by 10% y/o/y.