Consumer price inflation stats, all you need to know

The May CPI was flat headline and higher by .2% core, both one tenth below expectations. This brings the y/o/y change to 3.3% and 3.4% respectively from 3.4% and 3.6% in April.

A 2% drop in energy prices m/o/m kept a lid on the headline figure, though still up 3.7% y/o/y. Food prices were up .1% m/o/m and 2.1% y/o/y. Food at home prices were flat m/o/m and up 1% y/o/y. Food out of home continues to be much more expensive. For full service meals, prices rose .4% m/o/m and 3.5% y/o/y and for quick serve they were up .2% m/o/m and 4.5% y/o/y.

Services inflation ex energy prices slowed to a .2% gain from a .4% increase last month. They are still up 5.3% y/o/y, the same pace seen in April. We know the big driver of services inflation is from rents and OER was higher by .4% m/o/m for a 4^th straight month and up 5.7% y/o/y. Rent of Primary Residence was higher by .4% too m/o/m and up 5.3% y/o/y. Yes, current rents on the ground are showing little growth but CPI never fully reflected the spikes of a few years ago. Medical care costs continue to power higher, up another .5% m/o/m and are up about 6% annualized over the past 3 months. Health insurance costs rose .5% m/o/m and continues to normalize from the Covid calculation quirk. Auto insurance costs fell .1% m/o/m but after skyrocketing the last few months and are still up 20.3% y/o/y. Vehicle maintenance prices rose .3% m/o/m and 7.2% y/o/y. Prices fell for hotels by .2% m/o/m and 1.7% y/o/y. Airline fares fell for a 3^rd month with prices down a sharp 3.6% m/o/m and lower by 5.9% y/o/y. Domestic travel is ‘normalizing.’