The AI tech trade won't go down without a fight/Other musings and see what Oxford said
I think the AI tech trade is over in terms of its dramatic outperformance relative to everything else as realism about the returns are now apparent. That said, as seen yesterday it will not go down without a fight.
I understand the desire on the part of some to look at the inflation stats and parse out what they don't like, particularly shelter and look at the core rate ex housing in gauging an underlying trend. But, with respect to what the Fed should be looking at, they should absolutely not be ex'ing out housing, regardless of how it leads/lags the reality on the ground as there is NO OTHER sector of the economy that is more sensitive to interest rates. So, if the Fed's lever is interest rates, how can they ignore the sector that they most influence? And, housing costs make up about 30% of the average person's budget, especially when including property taxes.
Also, the Fed and the rest of us all debate at which level the Fed will take rates relative to the rate of inflation, the so called REAL rate that they think is neutral in terms of balancing growth and inflation. I'll add another metric they should use, much less economically scientific though. It is the rate at which below it people start to do financially stupid stuff, like we saw in the early to mid 2000's, some years in the teens and in 2021 to be specific. I'll define that by saying negative REAL rates, or even only slightly positive, for an extended period is what triggers the reckless, stupid financial behavior and misallocations of money.
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