The slowdown in hiring is unmistakable

While to be revised many more times, the first stab at the August payroll establishment survey saw a job gain of 142k, 23k below expectations and the two prior months were revised down by a total of 86k. The private sector added 118k, not far from what ADP said. The household survey said a net 168k jobs were created which exceeded the 120k person increase in the labor force and why the unemployment rate ticked down by one tenth to 4.2% as the consensus estimated. Of the 168k, 369k came from those aged 55 and over, offset by a fall of 383k for those aged under 25. The all in rate though did rise to 7.9% from 7.8% and that is the highest since October 2021.

Hours worked held at 34.3 as forecasted, up from 34.2 last month (which could have been influenced by Hurricane Beryl). The participation rate was unchanged at 62.7% and still is below where it was in February 2020 at 63.3% in part due to retiring boomers. The important 25-54 yr old working cohort saw a participation rate of 83.9% vs 84% in July and which was the highest since March 2001.