Euphoria/Global bond boat/Oil

I mentioned last week that market exuberance had gotten extreme post election as measured by the weekly Investors Intelligence sentiment survey. That was followed up this weekend with the updated Citi Panic/Euphoria index which jumped to .54 from .44 and is back to the highs seen in July right before the BoJ/yen driven market selloff. A read of .41 or more is considered Euphoria and we are thus well above that. Bottom line, this market ebullience was certainly a good set up for a pullback seen late last week and we'll see likely after Nvidia's numbers Wednesday night whether there is more to come.

While it may not happen in December and we might have to wait until January to see it, Governor Ueda of the BoJ does seem to be getting ready to raise rates again but with his typical caveats. On one hand, "I think that gradually adjusting the degree of accommodation in line with the improvement in economic activity and prices will support long-term economic growth and contribute to achieving the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner." Will it be next month? "For the December meeting, for example, we will make the right policy decision at that time and adjust our outlook as needed after assessing risks and additional information that we've gathered since the October meeting." I consider that latter comment on timing typical vague, non-committal commentary.