ISM mfr'g still underwater but a bit less so

Continuing on with the US manufacturing recession, ISM said its November index was 48.4, remaining below 50 but that was above the estimate of 47.5 and up from 46.5 in October. This index has been 50 or above (in March at 50.3) once since October 2022.

New orders rose to 50.4 from 47.1 and back above 50 for the first time since March 2024. Backlogs though fell to just 41.8, down .5 pt m/o/m and a 4 month low. Inventories rebounded to 48.1 from 42.6 and exports were up 3.2 pts to 48.7, though both still under 50. Supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chains, fell 3.3 pts to 48.7 (easing of lead times). Prices paid dropped 4.5 pts to 50.3 after rising by 6.5 pts last month. Finally, and ahead of the jobs data this week, the employment component rose 3.7 pts to 48.1, though below 50 for the 6th straight month

Notwithstanding the lift in manufacturing confidence, overall breadth worsened with just 3 industries seeing growth vs 5 in October. Similar to last month, 11 reported a contraction with the balance seeing no change. That 3 count is the least since just one saw growth in December 2023. Food, beverage & tobacco, along with computer/electronic products and electrical equipment were the sectors seeing growth with the latter two likely helped by AI/data center spend.