What's the AI payoff?/Shipping rates continue up/'Choiceful', 'We're always certain about that uncertainty'
I thought Daniel Newman of Futurum said it very well about all the AI investment spend in an interview on CNBC yesterday and asking where/what the returns will be from here from it. "I have this one concern and this one concern is that consumption layer. Who is buying and using and getting productivity and value out of all this AI. Where are these enterprise use cases that Jensen talked about and can we start to talk about them at scale and how they are delivering value to pharmaceutical companies to retailers, homebuilders. Because I think we're seeing the sell-in to the hyperscalers and there is not a lot of risk there but the sell-out into the market, the consumption layer is where I'm watching very closely."
I did by the way go check to see what the peak Cisco price to sales ratio was in 2000 and it was 24x. Nvidia's price to sales ratio on the expected January '25 fiscal year end revenue estimate of about $120b (double 2024 fiscal year) is currently 26x. Cisco's gross profit margin peaked at around 65% while Nvidia is currently around 76%.
Before I get to some earnings calls, let's check on the weekly container shipping prices that were updated today. The Shanghai to Rotterdam route saw the box price rise another $455 w/o/w to $7,322, higher for a 10th straight week, up 144% over this time frame and compares with $1,667 entering the year. It was about $2,000 in early 2020. The trip from Shanghai to LA saw the price rise by $232 w/o/w to $6,673, up for an 8th straight week and about doubling over the past two months. It began 2024 at $2,100. This is an inflationary big deal for the goods sector, especially since we are only a few months away from stores stocking up for the holidays. Air cargo rates have jumped too in response.
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