'Play it by ear' monetary policy

There was nothing new that I saw in the minutes, relative to what we’ve heard from Powell at his presser and the countless Fed speeches since. But, the 2 yr yield is quietly back to a 3 week high at 4.88% as the timing of a rate cut keeps getting pushed out.

Here are some other notables on defining ‘restrictive’, the commentary on inflation and the labor market. Also, what the plan is with the balance sheet and a one sentence throw in to keep us on our toes and part of the Fed push back of cutting rates sooner rather than later.

The bottom line, ‘play it by ear’ is the stance of monetary policy right now.

The use of the word ‘restrictive’ by some Fed members with regards to policy is code word for ‘no more hikes’ with a lean to cutting but asking them to define ‘restrictive’? Not so easy. “A number of participants noted uncertainty regarding the degree of restrictiveness of current financial conditions and the associated risk that such conditions were insufficiently restrictive on aggregate demand and inflation.”