At least in the NY area, the manufacturing recession continues on in July

With the first July industrial figure to be seen, the manufacturing recession continues on. The NY regional index was -6.6 vs -6.0 in June and around the estimate of -7.6. It’s been negative 8 months in a row and we know the national figure has been mostly negative for about two years.

New orders were around zero at -.6 vs -1.0 in June while backlogs fell by 10 pts to -11.2, a 6 month low. No inventory build seen yet as they came in at -6.1. Employment remained well below zero at -7.9. It was last positive in October 2023. The workweek was around zero. Delivery times remained low (supply chains good) while prices paid rose 2 pts to 26.5 but those received fell 1 pt to 6.1, the lowest in a year.