My first morning look but 'What were you thinking?'/POOL/Dovish and hawkish talk
There is no question that for the past month, the first quote I look at in the morning is Nvidia and not the US 10 yr yield in order to gauge what went on overnight and the tone in the morning. That will reverse back at some point but obviously not yet and now we can be entertained by watching NVDL too, the 2x Nvidia ETF.
I will say this on Nvidia's valuation again. Only tell me its forecasted P/E ratio if you think that its 76% gross profit margin is sustainable. As it is clearly not, I'll continue to value it on a P/S basis. On that, it's trading at 24x the expected fiscal 2025 sales forecast and 36x the trailing 12 months sales figure.
I'll include here the quote from Scott McNealy, the former CEO of Sun Microsystems, soon after the late 1990's bubble popped, which I'm sure you've seen but always a good reminder of valuation:
“At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?”
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