What if we keep getting rate cuts but no drop in long rates?/Gary Friedman speaks/The still 'choiceful' consumer
So, the ECB has now cut its deposit rate by 100 bps this year to 3% and similar to the US, long rates haven't fallen much even with the anemic growth the region is seeing. Since June 5th, the day before the first rate cut, the German 10 yr yield has fallen by just 27 bps, The 10 yr French oat yield, with its fiscal/political issues, is actually up 3 bps. Interestingly, and with the biggest bond market in the region in terms of its sizeable debt, the Italian 10 yr yield is down more than both its regional peers, down by 45 bps.
As for the UK and the BoE, their first rate cut was on August 1st and the day before the 10 yr gilt yield was at 3.97% and today stands at 4.38%. I still remain bearish on bond duration of anything more than 3-4 years.
To some earnings calls and from the always colorful Gary Friedman, the CEO of RH and whose stock is popping by 17% pre market. We know they cater to the higher end:
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