Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Within the payroll report, off the lowest level in 13 years, the workweek ticked up by one tenth to 34.3. Also, the 25-54 yr old participation rate saw a rise of 2 tenths m/o/m to 83.5% and that is above the February 2020 level of 83%.

2)Initial jobless claims were as expected at 217k vs the same amount last week. As a 220k print dropped out, the 4 week average was little changed too at 212k vs 213k in the week before.

3)The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment index for February was slightly higher m/o/m as "Consumer attitudes toward home selling conditions increased markedly in February, with current homeowners, in particular, expressing greater optimism that it's a 'good time to sell', a development that may foreshadow an upcoming increase in existing home listings." Let's hope because we need lower prices in order to help the first time buyer as "The share of those who believe it's a good time to buy a home ticked up slightly this month but remains at an extremely pessimistic 19%."

4)Ahead of next week's CPI and PPI, Manheim said its wholesale used car price index fell .1% m/o/m and down by 13.1% y/o/y. They said, "Though February activity was muted as we started the month, we saw more activity in the lanes at Manheim in the 2nd half of the month and finished the last week of February with some of the strongest weekly gains in wholesale prices for many years. Tax refunds have picked up over the last two weeks, with the average refund now 4% higher than 2023 levels at this time. This has put money into consumers' pockets, and retail purchase activity is increasing. In turn, dealers are coming to the lanes and buying units at Manheim right at the start of the spring selling season for wholesale markets."

5)The WCI Shanghai to Rotterdam container price fell again by $294 w/o/w to $3,650, off the highs of January of $4,951 but still about double the level it started the year at. Trips to LA fell too by $214 to $4,272 vs $2,100 at the start of 2024, though about $500 off its recent high.

6)Even though mortgage rates were steady w/o/w, we did see a jump in mortgage applications with purchases up by 10.6% as the spring selling season is now fully under way. This jump follows 4 weeks of declines that put the pace at just above the lowest level since 1995. Refi's were up too, rising by 8.1% w/o/w, after 3 weeks of declines.

7)Both Broadcom and Marvell saw big increases in their AI powered chip businesses.

8)From CrowdStrike: In contrast to Palo Alto, “CrowdStrike delivered an exceptional 4th quarter that far exceeded our expectations...These results illustrate CrowdStrike's substantial and widening competitive moat, exceptional business acceleration, and validated market leadership… The current macro environment remains stable and consistent with prior quarters. We expect continued deal scrutiny throughout this coming year...In contrast to the macroeconomic backdrop, the state of the threat landscape has never been more elevated."