Maybe sounds like a .5-1% GDP growth rate, certainly not 3%

I’ve been arguing for months that the US economy feels much more like a 1-1.5%, and certainly not the 3% print for Q2 (though first half is averaging 2%). After reading the Fed’s Beige Book introductory paragraph, I might even be generous with the upper end of my range and should lower it to .5-1% growth outlook.

I’m going to go through the rest of the Fed commentary but the only area of economic growth I see is from the higher income consumer spending on travel, leisure, and hospitality and that includes live entertainment (I did see Pearl Jam last night at MSG and the place was packed), anything related to AI spend, and of course government spending, covering healthcare, interest expense (aka, helping the beneficiaries of all that interest income, particularly that higher income saver/boomer), defense and the CHIPS Act and IRA.

From the Beige Book and I bolded for emphasis: