Labor market softening/Multi family construction slowing further/Philly flat lines but wow on inflation expectations

So last week's initial jobless claims jump wasn't such an anomaly. After printing 243k last week (revised up by 1k), the highest since last August, they came in at a still high (relative to trend up until a few weeks ago) 238k for the week ended 6/15, 3k above the forecast. The 4 week average rose to 233k from 227k and that is the highest since last September. Also of note, continuing claims rose 15k w/o/w to 1.828mm, just 1k from the most since November 2021. 

Bottom line, the labor market is softening, with now a pickup in firing's, and the only thing that is now becoming the outlier is the BLS establishment survey data. 

4 week avg Initial Claims

Continuing Claims

May housing starts were almost 100k below expectations at 1.277mm, down from 1.352mm in April. After holding pretty steady above 1mm since last November, single family starts fell under 1mm at 982k, down from 1.036mm in April. Also, multi family construction starts continue to shrink, totaling just 295k in May and the 2nd month in the past 3 below 300k. It was 258k in March and as high as 490k in December. Outside of Covid, multi family starts are hovering around the lowest since 2013 and we are setting ourselves up for a reacceleration in rental price gains sometime in the 2nd half of 2025, into 2026.