NY mfr'g remains in contraction but hopes for improvement

The June NY manufacturing index rose to -6.0 from -15.6 and 4 pts better than expected, though of course still reflecting contracting activity. New orders got almost back to the flat line at -1 while backlogs got above zero at +1 for the first time since May 2022. Inventories were above zero for a 3^rd month at +1. Delivery times rose 5 pts but are still negative (reflecting no supply chain issues). Prices paid fell almost 4 pts to 24.5 while prices received dropped by 7 pts to 7.1, the lowest since last August. Lastly of note on the current situation, employment remained well below zero at -8.7 and is negative for the 8^th straight month and the workweek was negative too.

The real bright spot was the 6 month activity outlook which jumped to 30.1 from 14.5 and that’s the highest since March 2022. Expectations for new orders seemed to help lift overall confidence as inventory expectations remained low and just maybe the hoped for inventory restock is upon us. Expectations for employment rose too but held steady at low levels for capital spending. The inflation outlook for prices paid and those received fell a touch.