Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Initial jobless claims fell to 201k from 213k and that was 15k less than expected but because it was President’s Day Weekend, I’ll always wait for the week after a holiday influenced print for a better tell. Smoothing this out, the 4 week average fell to 215k from 219k. Continuing claims fell by 27k to 1.862mm after rising by a like amount in the week before.

2)The January Architecture Billings Index remained well below 50 at 46.2 but that was up a touch from the 45.4 seen in December. AIA said, "This now marks the lengthiest period of declining billings since 2010" but they are optimistic as "the pace of this decline is less rapid...Firms are seeing growth with inquiries into new projects and value of newly signed design contracts is holding steady, showing potential signs of interest from clients in new projects."

3)At depressed levels but existing home sales in January, thus likely capturing most contracts signed in the September, October, November timeframe, totaled exactly 4mm which is about in line with expectations and about the same as the final 2023 number and up from December’s print of 3.88mm (revised up by 100k). Months’ supply fell to 3 from 3.1 in December and compares with 2.9 in January 2023 and 3.1 in January 2020. The median home price rose 5.1% y/o/y and continues to put a squeeze on the first time home buyer who made up just 28% of purchases, getting boxed out by all cash buyers who totaled 32% of purchases from 29% last month.

4)The WCI Shanghai to Rotterdam route for a 40 ft container fell slightly, by $67 to $4,221 which compares with $1,667 at the start of the year. The Shanghai to LA trip fell by $71 w/o/w to $4,683 vs $2,100 in the last week of December. 

5)I guess a bit less challenged, from Dallas Banking Conditions survey: "Loan volumes remained stable, with near-equal shares of bankers reporting an increase over the past six weeks as those reporting a decrease. While residential real estate loan volumes have been declining notably over the past six months, those declines abated in the latest survey. The pace of credit tightening continued to slow, particularly for commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans. Loan demand continued to decline. Loan nonperformance and loan pricing rose but at a more moderate pace. Looking ahead, bankers’ outlooks are mixed: they expect stronger loan demand six months from now and more tempered declines in loan performance but further deterioration in overall business activity."

6)Nvidia, need I say more?