Consumer confidence mixed/Private sector job openings near 3 1/2 yr low

The July Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board was 100.3, about in line with the estimate of 99.7 and compares with 97.8 in June (revised up from 100.4 initially) and 101.3 in May. There has been an interesting divergence with the two main components this year. The Present Situation has fallen to the lowest level since April 2021 and go back to January 2017, not including Covid, the last time it was lower. On the flip side, while still pretty depressed, the Expectations component rose to the highest since January.

The differential can be explained by the labor market answers. People are more worried now but hopeful in the coming 6 months things will improve, albeit slightly.

Those that said jobs were currently Plentiful fell to the lowest level since March 2021. Jobs Hard to Get rose to the most since March 2021. On the other hand, those expecting ‘more jobs’ in 6 months rose to the highest since January, though still remaining very low. Adding further to the unevenness, the 6 month outlook for ‘higher income’ fell to match the lowest since February 2023.

One yr inflation expectations held at 5.4% for a 3rd straight month and remaining in a tight range of 5.2%-5.4% this year.