10 yr yield at a key level/Mfr'g still a challenge/Interesting earnings comments

So we are now at that key 4.30% 10 yr yield level I've mentioned here a few times as it is the 50% retracement of the highs and lows in yield going back to last summer. An interesting set up ahead of the jobs data this week. I want to include here again, in case you missed it, what TriNet said on Friday about what they are seeing in the labor market:

"Slower economic growth, higher interest rates, and generally cautious outlook resulted in a third quarter of no net hiring amongst our customer base. While the headline jobs reports have been generally positive from the BLS over the last year, our experience has differed materially. Growth in several sectors, including government, construction, and healthcare are fueling aggregate headlines, while our core verticals of technology, life sciences, financial services, and other professional services have been muted." 

With Treasuries now getting oversold, I would not be surprised if we have a bounce but I'm still bearish on duration and think longer end yields will continue higher after any short term drop.

While still negative, the October Dallas manufacturing index seen yesterday was the least bad since April 2022 at -3.0. Here were some of the comments from it, though that still reflect that contraction in activity:

Chemical Mfrg:

"Interest rate impacts continue to put pressure on the overall construction markets and auto industry, which are major customers of the basic materials space."

Computer & Electronic Product Mfrg:

"We need more interest rate cuts on leasing capital equipment to see a difference in our industry. Rates are still too high."

Fabricated Metal Product Mfrg:

"We are expecting a continued period of lower demand and production over the next six to 12 months. We have flexed down our workforce and supplier purchases accordingly."

Food Mfr'g:

"We are experiencing inflation related increases in the cost of doing business across the spectrum of operations with no real way to recoup or have margin protection."

"Sales volume is below projections for 4^th quarter 2024. Geopolitical instability is increasing throughout the world, and the US presidential election may create more instability."

"We are seeing increased demand for our products, which is driving the increase in our production."

Machinery Mfr'g: