Help me help you
Please help me understand how this sentence on the economy from the just released Beige Book from the Fed and its coverage of 12 districts around the country sounds like a 3%ish type economy for Q3 annualized. My only conclusion is that the huge amount of government spending with it exceeding receipts by $1.8 trillion or about 6% of GDP is completely distorting the overall data. And again, the other areas of strength being anything associated with AI cap ex and higher income/asset holders consumer spend offsetting contraction in some areas and little growth in others. It is so important to look under the hood of this economy instead of assuming generalities about the state it is in.
In summary of the 12 Districts, "On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts since early September, though two Districts reported modest growth." This was said of the biggest component of GDP, "Reports on consumer spending were mixed, with some Districts noting shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives."
On the labor market, "On balance, employment increased slightly during this reporting period, with more than half of the Districts reporting slight or modest growth and the remaining Districts reporting little or no change. Many Districts reported low worker turnover, and layoffs reportedly remained limited. Demand for workers eased somewhat, with hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth. Worker availability improved, as many contacts reported it had become easier to find the workers they need. However, contacts noted that it remained difficult to find workers with certain skills or in some industries, such as technology, manufacturing, and construction."
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