Quick Empire mfr'g rundown

After surprising to the upside in September, the October NY manufacturing index is back to disappointing. The -11.9 print is down from +11.5 last month and below the estimate of +3.9. New orders were -7.9 in August, +9.4 in September and -10.2 in October. Backlogs too fell back below zero as did inventories. The inflation stats lifted with prices paid up by 6 pts m/o/m to 29, a 6 month high. Prices received rose by 3.4 pts to a 5 month high at 10.8. The positive was the positive 4.1 pt print for the employment component which follows 11 months in a row under zero. The workweek was positive for a 2^nd month after a string of negative levels.

With regards to the 6 month outlook, business expectations did lift by 8 pts to 38.7 and that is the most optimistic since October 2021 (in terms of direction, not degree, as always with diffusion indices). Capital spending plans got back what it lost last month and expectations rose for future hiring.