The Boock Report

The Boock Report

Inflation data about in line/Savings rate falls to lowest since Oct 2022.

Peter Boockvar
Apr 26, 2024
∙ Paid

I meant 34 yr low in the yen vs the US dollar, mistakenly writing 24 yr low this morning. 

The March PCE inflation deflator rose .3% m/o/m both headline and core as expected. The y/o/y gains of 2.7% and 2.8% for both were one tenth above expectations due to rounding and vs 2.7% and 2.8% in the month before respectively. Service price inflation led the way again, with a 4% rise y/o/y while goods prices were flat, which was the pre Covid trend. Again, the PCE's biggest weighting by far is healthcare vs housing for CPI. 

As this came weeks after CPI and PPI and after yesterday's Q3 GDP report which includes PCE and its inputs, it is rare to have this number deviate much from expectations and this didn't either. The drop in Treasury yields (by 1-2 bps) and rise further in the S&P futures (though off its morning highs) is likely because it wasn't hotter than expected m/o/m, though was a hair y/o/y.

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