Home prices, let's draw the trendline/Consumer confidence mixed/Mfr'g recession continues on

Continuing its march higher, home prices rose again in June, by .2% m/o/m and by 6.5% y/o/y according to S&P CoreLogic. It’s certainly great for existing homeowners but a tough financial situation for those first time buyers and mitigating any relief that lower mortgage rates provide.

Leading the home price gains is where the supply is very constrained, in San Diego, NY, Chicago and LA. Lagging was Portland, Denver, Minneapolis and Dallas.

Here is a chart of this index going back to 1987 that I have data on and I drew a trend line for perspective. While the market currently needs more supply, you can see the extent in which the Fed had peddle to the medal with the demand side, both back in the early 2000’s when Greenspan took the fed funds rate to 1% and via zero rate and QE policy (both Treasury and MBS) that followed in the housing crash aftermath, and then juiced again during Covid.