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Copper by the way is up another 2% and by 10% in 5 trading days. We remain bullish and long a variety of commodity stocks. The Fed’s job does not get easier.

Ahead of the April cost of living figures and retail sales data today, the NY Fed released yesterday its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. They list the absolute debt levels in a variety of credit categories (which is only helpful when looked at relative to GDP and/or income which is not mentioned) and serious delinquent rates. 'Serious' defined as 90 days or more past due. They said this, "In the first quarter of 2024, credit card and auto loan transition rates into serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups. An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, reveling worsening financial distress among some households."

To be specific, the 'serious delinquency' rate for mortgage debt wen to .92% in Q1 '24 from .59% in Q1 '23. For a HELOC, it was .52% vs .48% in Q1 '23. For auto loan debt it rose to 2.78% w/o/w from 2.33%. In credit cards, it jumped to 6.86% from 4.57%. And, it did slip to .80% from .94% for student loans. 

We have a remarkably mixed and uneven economy from my vantage point I'll reiterate.