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Succinct Summation of the Week's Events
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:
Sep 19
•
Peter Boockvar
JGB yields rise to highest since 2008 post BoJ/Good economic commentary from DRI, LEN, & FDX
Yes, I'm going to talk Japan again because JGB yields are rising after the BoJ did as expected by not raising rates but two members dissented and wanted…
Sep 19
•
Peter Boockvar
Claims/Philly mfr'g/Yields across curve above 1:59pm yesterday after big multi month drop
After last week’s initial claims jump to 264k (revised up by 1k and influenced by Texas but gave some of that jump back), they fell back to 231k for the…
Sep 18
•
Peter Boockvar
What stood out, with one wanting to put grain alcohol in the punch bowl/BoC, BoE/Sentiment/GIS, CBRL
A few things stood out to me from Jay Powell's presser yesterday.
Sep 18
•
Peter Boockvar
And the Fed does this while Miran wanted/wants them to do that/this
There was some softer labor growth/persistent inflation type acknowledgement in the first paragraph of the FOMC statement when they said “Job gains have…
Sep 17
•
Peter Boockvar
Hopefully single family starts is old news, multi family construction continues to slow
If mortgage rates stay down maybe the August single family housing starts data will be old news as it fell to just 890k from 957k in the month before.
Sep 17
•
Peter Boockvar
Can Jay Powell give enough dovish love that markets have priced in?
With markets having melted up, stocks, bonds, metals, etc...as we clearly know, ahead of today in the belief that Fed rate cuts are a magic elixir for…
Sep 17
•
Peter Boockvar
Home builders hopeful that lower rates will help but buyer traffic still punk
The September NAHB home builder sentiment index was flat at just 32 but the Future Expectations component continues to creep higher as builders of…
Sep 16
•
Peter Boockvar
Headline retail sales good but pull forwards and tariff pricing flow thru/Import prices up
Core retail sales in August rose .7% m/o/m, 3 tenths above the estimate and after a .5% rise in July.
Sep 16
•
Peter Boockvar
Oh to be a fly on that Fed wall
So, do we now assume that new Fed Governor Stephen Miran will vote for a 50 bps cut tomorrow and Lisa Cook will vote for none?
Sep 16
•
Peter Boockvar
Manufacturing remains a tough sector in September
After two months of positive prints, the September NY manufacturing fell to -8.7.
Sep 15
•
Peter Boockvar
Ahead of the Fed rate cut, I still believe in the benefits of positive REAL rates/Silver/France/China
Outside of the expected 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday, I believe the key thing to watch is what the long term REAL rate in the dot plot is.
Sep 15
•
Peter Boockvar
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