"And all the roads we have to walk are winding. And all the lights that lead us there are blinding."
And we want to put a 35% tariff on Bangladesh who makes many of our clothes because why? The per capita income in the country is $2,820 according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. I don't believe there are many in the country in the market for a Ford F150.
We still should not stop keeping our eyes off global bond markets as they are on the move again with higher yields. The German 10 yr is up by 6 bps to 2.70%, still low but at the highest since April 2nd. The 30 yr bund yield is just a few bps from the highest since 2011. On one hand German has one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios in the developed world but on the other, it's rising as they ramp up their fiscal spend. The French 30 yr oat yield is also up about 6 bps to 4.16%, a level last seen in 2011.
This followed a 9 bps jump in the Japanese JGB 30 yr yield and a 15 bp move higher in their 40 yr. After the RBA didn't raise rates as many expected, Australian yields popped too. The RBA said "The Board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis."
And in response, the US 30 yr yield today is approaching 5% again at 4.96%, up 10 bps over the past two trading days.
Bottom line, there is a global aversion still to too much bond duration with the 30 yr maturities (and out to 40 yrs in Japan) the most vulnerable. This long end global bond bear market I believe is still alive.
As we are all market participants, in many varying ways, and with so many global cross currents, Oasis sang to us over the weekend in their first concert since 2009, "And all the roads we have to walk are winding. And all the lights that lead us there are blinding. There are many things that I would like to say to you but I don't know how."
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