A few things of note

Just to put some perspective of what a $4 Trillion market cap looks like when compared to the world economy. It is 3.6% of global GDP and for perspective, at its March 2000 market cap peak of about $550, Cisco was 1.6% of global GDP at the time. This is in no way an opinion on Nvidia stock, just a comparison after the incredible run it has had.

The Bull/Bear spread in the weekly Investors Intelligence survey widened to 32.6 with Bulls at 53.8 vs 51 last week and Bears slipping a touch to 21.2 from 21.6. I consider a spread above 30 stretched and one above 40 as extreme. The more volatile and fickle AAII saw a dip in Bulls of 3.6 pts to 41.4 after a 10 pt rise last week. Bears were up by 2.5 pts to 35.6 after dropping by 7.2 pts in the week before. The CNN Fear/Greed index closed yesterday at 75, around the highs in this rally and remaining in the 'Extreme Greed' area. The NAAIM Exposure Index will get updated later today.

Bottom line, again nothing extreme in terms of bullishness but the skepticism with the rally up until last week is over and the bull mood is back.

Ahead of the jobless claims data today, the Atlanta Fed's Wage Tracker came out yesterday and it showed 4.2% y/o/y growth in June vs 4.3% in May. Part of this is just an easy comp as it was up by 5.3% in June 2024 and still remains above the 3-4% range seen pre Covid. For a 'job stayer', the stat was similar, up 4.2% vs 4.3% in May. For a 'job switcher', wages grew by 4% from 4.1% and that actually is back in line with the pre Covid trend.