Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events:

Positives,

1)Scott Bessent has a great resume for a very important job.

2)The US continues to run a huge goods trade deficit and it was $99.1b in October, though about $4b below expectations and down from $109b in September. Both imports and exports fell m/o/m but from everything I’m hearing and seeing, this will reverse itself in November for both post election as many try to get ahead of any tariffs.

3)Personal income accelerated to a .6% gain in October m/o/m, twice the estimate which was quicker than the .4% rise in spending, as forecasted. Private sector income growth in particular continues to remain strong with a .5% m/o/m increase and 5.6% y/o/y vs 5.3% in September. Also lifting the headline income figure was the 8% y/o/y gain in ‘transfer payments’ which is the fastest I’ve seen in a while. Spending rose .4% m/o/m as forecasted. Combining income and spending puts the savings rate at 4.4% from 4.1% in September and 4.4% in August.

4)Pending home sales in October were up 2% m/o/m, better than the estimated decline of 2%. The NAR said this in particular, “The record high stock market is providing a boost for upper end home buyers.” They said home sales did best in “the expensive regions of the Northeast and West.”

5)The US continues to run a huge goods trade deficit and it was $99.1b in October, though about $4b below expectations and down from $109b in September. Both imports and exports fell m/o/m but from everything I’m hearing and seeing, this will reverse itself in November for both post election as many try to get ahead of any tariffs.

6)Within the October durable goods data, shipments rose .2%, one tenth above expectations but not enough to change Q3 GDP estimates.

7)Q3 GDP was left unrevised at 2.8% but it’s old news with us 2/3 done with Q4.