More on that line about 'shipping costs'/Other stuff, including the bond bear market that continues on

A line from yesterday's US PMI from S&P Global stood out and was this, "December saw raw material prices spike sharply higher amid supplier led price rises and higher shipping costs." On the latter, let's go through that. We've seen the lift in container shipping costs this year from where they started 2024. The Drewry World Container Index last week was at $3,529 per 40 ft container, up from about $1,700 at the beginning of the year. With air cargo, World ACD said on Friday that "Global air cargo average spot rates rose by a further 4% in the first full week of December to a 2024 high of US$3.30 per kilo, driven by a +8% surge from Asia Pacific origins, as the sector's strong but relatively stable fourth quarter peak season approaches its zenith." And, "Compared with last year, average worldwide spot rates in week 49 were up 21% y/o/y, led by a 62% increase from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins, and 19% y/o/y increases from Asia Pacific and Europe."

With respect to trucking rates, they continue higher too with the Dry Van per mile rate in the US (from Truckstop.com) rising to the highest level since February at $1.72, which is up 6.8% y/o/y.

So, while core goods prices have of course deflated this year, the cost of moving them around are up sharply this year and the catalyst for that PMI quote. Now this recent move up could very well be the pull forward of ordering ahead of likely tariffs but something we'll be watching closely of course.

Dry Van Per Mile price

Maybe another sign of pull forward but not necessarily to the US, Singapore said its November non-oil exports jumped by 14.7% m/o/m, well above the estimate of up 9.2% and was up 3.4% y/o/y vs the forecast of down 1%. The rise was led by a 23.2% y/o/y jump in electronics exports. The export strength was to India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia. Exports to the US fell by 19% and to the EU by 1.2%. The Singapore Straits index fell by .6% with most of Asian markets red overnight but it is still up 17% ytd.