Claims trend the same/Chicago mfr'g weak/Home sales as expected/Confidence lifts

Initial jobless claims were little changed at 210k vs 212k last week and was in line when including a revision. The 4 week average was unchanged at 211k. Continuing claims at 1.819mm was also about as expected.

The bottom line remains the same, at least as measured here, the pace of firing’s remains low (putting aside the big question of claims eligibility being more limited and the severance some get when fired thus lessening the need for unemployment benefits) while those still receiving claims still hovers around the highest level since November 2021.

4 Week avg Initial Claims

Continuing Claims

The Chicago manufacturing index fell to the weakest level since May 2023, joining NY, Dallas, and Richmond that are remaining in contraction. As I don’t have internal details of the report, there is nothing more to add other than May was another challenged month for manufacturing as seen by most regional surveys so far, though we have hopes for an eventual inventory rebuild that was seen in Philly and in the S&P Global data.