When will the ECB cut, after the Fed/Good deflation/Leisure spend by the US consumer

As we discuss when/if/how many times the Fed cuts rates this year, when will the ECB cut rates? According to the mostly hawkish Governing Council member Robert Holzmann, they'll just wait to see what the Fed does before acting themselves. He said Friday, "If the Fed changes its policy hiking, then I assume it will have the same conditions like in Europe, because these currency areas are interrelated so this would then also mean that we have to rethink...But typically the Fed always in the last few years has always gone first by about half a year so I would assume, ceteris paribus, as things are, that we would also follow with delay. I don't see circumstances which bring us to cut before." I don't think all his colleagues would agree but I'm sure many do. The euro is near a 4 week high vs the dollar.

Last week I showed you a chart from Bloomberg picturing the rising pace of commercial real estate foreclosures. Here is one reflecting the 'surge' in CRE loans that are in distress in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). The 8.6% figure compares with 1.5% one year ago. The article said there are about $80b of CRE CLO loans outstanding, so a small sliver but emblematic of the bigger problem. 

It bothers me when people just assume the deflation is all bad and something to be avoided at all costs. It's a big mistake to broadly assume that. It's bad for someone who has too much debt but it's great for others who would benefit from lower prices, like consumers. Lower prices raise real wages and increases spending power. Lower prices make things more affordable for more people. Also, deflation in technology is a given and look at the wonders it has created. So when I hear that deflation in China is the bogeyman, it is for those who have too much debt but it is a great thing for the Chinese consumer.