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The Fed gave us a rate cut but we've seen this since/Earnings comments/BoK rate cut

The Fed gave us a rate cut but we've seen this since/Earnings comments/BoK rate cut

Peter Boockvar
Oct 11, 2024
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It's still at a low level so for now the trajectory is what we watch but the 2 yr inflation breakeven jumped another 10 bps yesterday to 2.08%, a 3 month high. It was 1.68% on the day before the Fed cut 50 bps. So, we got a large rate cut and all the Fed did, along with other factors, was stoke higher inflation expectations. The 5 yr view has had a similar move to 2.28%, still low and we'd all be happy with inflation around that averaged over the coming 5 years but it now needs to stop going up. As I believe inflation will average above that in the coming 5 years, we remain long shorter term TIPS. 

2 yr Inflation Breakeven

5 yr Inflation Breakeven

Container shipping rates continue lower but air cargo rates continue higher. The Shanghai to Rotterdam route saw the price of a 40 ft container drop by another $224 w/o/w, the 12th week in a row of declines and quite a relief ahead of the holidays. While still about double where they started the year, at $3,591 it is less than the half the July peak of $8,267. 

Here were some notable earnings comments.

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