Let's hope they are wrong/Commodity prices nearing a 2 yr high/Dallas mfr'g/Other

With the average gallon of gasoline at the highest level since October and higher by almost 3% y/o/y according to AAA, a Bloomberg News article yesterday cited AAA's estimate for where prices can go this summer during the summer travel season. It's $4, which if seen would be the most expensive since August 2022. Let's hope they are wrong since the US consumer is already showing some shaky knees, especially the lower to middle income one, when seeing and listening to both the retail sales data and what we heard from a variety of retailers and restaurant companies over the past month. They cite low inventories and "Attacks on Russian refineries have taken about 600,000 barrels a day of capacity" off the market and we know commodities are fungible. Also, "maintenance at US refineries and unexpected outages caused by leaks and fires also have had an impact on supplies and prices. 

Avg Gallon of Gasoline

With another spike in cocoa prices (was up 8% yesterday and by another 4% today), along with other soft commodities, the CRB Food Stuff index was higher by another 1.3% yesterday. It's now up y/o/y and it's the last thing food companies, restaurants and consumers need right now as traffic and volumes are more squishy. And, the overall CRB index is within less than 1% of the highest closing print since August 2022, the last thing the Federal Reserve wants to see just as Powell gets dovish.