Yea, about a 2% growth economy ytd but we must continue to look under the hood

I read an interesting stat in yesterday's FT citing JP Morgan, "Vehicle prices have accounted for 79% of the decline in core goods prices over the past year." I knew it was a chunk but not that much. 

Jumping right in to the earnings calls and we continue to see a highly mixed economy. Looking at the GDP headline read, averaging about 2% this year, at face value just doesn't give much information of what is going on under the hood. 

From Royal Caribbean, where demand is still pretty solid but where the stock sold off because of moderating yield growth expectations for the back half of the year:

"The demand and pricing environment remained very strong since the last earnings calls. Booking volumes were higher than the corresponding period in 2023 and at record pricing levels. The company continues to be in a record booked position for 2024 sailings. Consumer spending onboard, as well as pre-cruise purchases, continue to significantly exceed 2023 levels driven by greater participation at higher prices."

"The further increase in yield expectations for the year is the result of higher pricing and onboard revenue expectations across key products, with particular strength in European and Alaskan itineraries."

"We continue to see very positive sentiment from our customers bolstered by a resilient economy, low unemployment, stabilizing inflation, and record high household net worth."

And, "our research suggests that consumers are spending more on travel than any other leisure category, and that they intend to increase their travel spend in the next 12 months." And the boomers are a big help as "Based on our research, retirees take 50% more vacation than non-retirees. The baby boomer generation also holds 50% of the $156 trillion of US wealth, and they are expected not only to spend more on travel, but also to transfer $72 trillion of their wealth to other generations over the next two decades, including traveling together."

Speaking of boats, but much smaller ones, this from Brunswick, the boat maker:

"With high interest rates continuing to pressure consumer budgets and suppress discretionary spending, the introduction of new model year products at the beginning of the important month of June did not catalyze boat purchases as we had anticipated, and our 2nd quarter results were slightly below expectations."

"Without strong peak season momentum, the continued slower retail sales, combined with higher levels of discounting and carrying costs, have increased pressure on dealer and channel partner profit margins, resulting in ongoing conservative wholesale ordering patterns, even for new model year products. In turn, this is causing OEM's to maintain lower boat production rates through the main selling season."

And from a retail seller of boats, Marine Max:

They somehow drove 4% same store sales growth and said "With aggressive marketing and promotions, we were able to generate an increase in boat revenue, complemented by nice contributions from our super yacht's group, marinas and finance and insurance business."

"At the industry level, the aggressive promotional environment continued in Q3, amid elevated inventories, interest rates, and persistent concerns about inflation. The weakened consumer sentiment was evident in US powerboat registrations...While the premium end of the market is performing better than the value segment, and as we have said all year, it's not without its challenges."

Texas Roadhouse is feeling good about their business: