Where are on the curve are you borrowing off?/That other big central bank/Important earnings comments
With a 2 week high in the US 10 yr yield post FOMC, the beneficiaries of a lower fed funds rate will depend on where on the yield curve one can borrow. Is it SOFR+ or further out with at least right now the former more excited than the latter. With the latter more influential to commercial real estate. There is no free lunch on what the Fed is embarking on post a 40 yr high in inflation and the quickest response of 'recalibration' off zero rate policy and epic QE.
The other major central bank met overnight and reverted back to its typically dovish self but with a door open to another hike by year end, not in October though. As expected the BoJ left policy unchanged as fully expected but I expect one more hike maybe in December. At the same time they continue to shrink the pace of asset purchases and will do so thru March 2026 and something no one is seemingly paying attention to in terms of shrinking what has been a massive liquidity spigot. Governor Ueda got spooked in July and said, "The outlook for overseas economic development is highly uncertain. Markets remain unstable. We need to scrutinize such developments carefully for the time being." The yen rally has certainly given him a bit more time and he said to this, "As such, we can afford to spend some time in making a policy decision."
Leaving open the possibility of another rate increase at one of their last few meetings, but with a caveat, Ueda said "Looking at consumption and other data, Japan's economy is on track and moving in line with our forecasts. But, uncertainty on the US economic outlook has heightened. That is offsetting some of our optimism on inflation expectations."
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