Manufacturing reality back in NY

After the initial post election November spike in the NY manufacturing index to +31.2 from -11.9 in October, it fell back to reality in December at +.2. Just as the headline is, the internals are so volatile month to month. For example, new orders were -7.9 in August, +9.4 in September, -10.2 in October, +28 in November and +6.1 in December. Make sense of that. The best way to view it is to compare the month with the six month average. For new orders, the six month average is +4.1. For backlogs, the -8.4 December print is vs -6.2 for the six month average. Employment at -5.8 is vs -3.5 and the workweek of -3.9 is vs -1.4 for the six month average. Inventories jumped to +10.5 vs the half yr average of -2.1. Prices paid at 21.1 compares with 25.2 while those prices received at 4.2 is vs 8.2 over the past six months.

The six month outlook was 24.6 vs 33.2 in November and 38.7 in October and compares with the six month average of 29.3 and is at a 4 month low. Capital spending plans jumped in October and November but fell back by 2 pts to 11.6 but above the half yr average of 7.4.