Old news but very relevant/Earnings comments/The price is too damn high
Today's most important data point is very old news but also very relevant. It's the BLS annual benchmark revision to its monthly payroll data for the 12 months through March 2024. I've seen estimates that it could be marked lower by between 250,000 to 1mm jobs. This would be a downgrade of the current read of 2.9mm jobs in the 12 months ended March, or an average of 242,000 per month. The way I view this is a contest between what ZipRecruiter has been saying for the past year about a muted pace of hiring which I've highlighted in each of their earnings calls vs the Birth/Death model which might have been a very generous phantom adder to monthly job growth. We'll see at 10am.
Regardless, this also highlights how faulty the job of the Fed is in that they are making major policy decisions on data that subsequently gets revised multiple times. I'll argue again, the Fed should be removed from the business of setting the overnight fed funds rate. Let the market do it based on the supply and demand for money. Sometimes it will get it wrong but will more quickly adjust when it does.
Anyway, I'll just get right to some earnings calls as there is not much else going on.
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