The jobs headline looks great but contributes to more confusion when adding other things so help me out
I will start this rundown on the jobs data by saying I and we should have no idea what the influence in the official jobs data of the massive immigration that has occurred of late. Do we know how many jobs are getting filled by legal immigrants as if they are illegal, I doubt someone is answering the BLS surveys? An employer is not telling the BLS, ‘yeah, we just hired a bunch of illegals.’ And I doubt the BLS is calling new immigrants (legal or not) asking about their work status since they would be tough to locate. I’m not saying there is not an impact but trying to quantify it I find to be extraordinarily difficult.
March payrolls grew by 303k, 89k more than expected with 232k of that being from the private sector. Also, the two prior months were revised up by a combined 22k. The household survey showed strength too, rising by 498k after 4 months in the past 5 of declines. The mix though of this is important to note. All came from those aged over 55 and under 25. There was a drop in household employment for those aged 25-54, the key working cohort. The labor force was up by a similar amount, by 469k and the mix put the unemployment rate at 3.8% vs the 2 yr high of 3.9% last month.
Also, hours worked ticked up to 34.4 from 34.3 and better than the estimate of no change. Average hourly earnings rose .3% m/o/m as expected but February was revised up by one tenth. The y/o/y gain was 4.1%.
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