The jobs report rundown

Payrolls in April grew by 175k, below the estimate of 240k and the two prior months were revised down by a total of 22k. Most of the miss was in the government sector as the private sector added 167k of those 175k jobs vs the forecast of 193k. 

The household sector added just 25k jobs and combine this with the 87k person rise in the labor force, saw the unemployment rate tick up by one tenth to 3.9%, matching the highest since January 2022. The U6 all in rate also rose by one tenth m/o/m to 7.4%. Mix was a factor here as the 25-54 yr old category added 163k jobs but was more than offset by a drop of 319k for those 55 and older. Those younger than 25 saw jobs rise. 

Pointing too to moderation in new work was the downtick in hours worked to 34.3 from 34.4. Not including Covid, it is just .1 hr from matching the lowest since 2011. The labor force participation rate held at 62.7%, still below its February 2020 level but did rise one tenth to 83.5% for the key 25-54 age group which is above the 83% print in February 2020. Job leavers as a % of the unemployed fell to 12% from 12.7% and vs 11% in February and well off the peak of 16% a few years ago when quitting was much more common. 

Average hourly earnings rose .2% m/o/m vs the estimate of .3% and understand that the rise in immigration and the lower wage jobs that many of them take does flow thru this data point. Versus last year, hourly wages were up by 3.9%. I can't quantify the California mandated wage increase into this national number. For leisure/hospitality specifically, with these offsetting factors, wages were up just .1% m/o/m and the main factor in the headline wage miss relative to expectations. Average weekly earnings were also up 3.9% y/o/y.